A time for ...

In recent years around this time I have posted a blog reviewing events of the past 12 months and looking forward to the next 12. This year I shall refrain; there are plenty of other people who will be writing such themes. I shall focus instead on what happened this time one hundred years ago.

A century ago saw the start of one of the largest and most violent episodes in human history. Known at the time as "the war to end all wars", the First World War was perhaps more tragic than we will ever truly realise. Sylvia Nasar in her immensely insightful Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius notes that 
"World War I destroyed globalization, disrupted economic growth, severed physical, financial and trade links, bankrupted governments and businesses, and led weak or populist regimes to rely on desperate measures that were supposed to head off revolutions but just as often hastened them. When the war was over, the victors as well as the vanquished were crippled by colossal debts and subjected to vicious attacks of inflation and deflation. Poverty, hunger, and disease, those Malthusian scourges, once again seemed to have the upper hand."

Prior to World War I the world's major economies had been on an upward path, with economic growth and development at an unprecedented rate. Trade and financial links had been forged ever deeper and farther. Social and economic mobility were no longer regarded as being impossible, with increasing recognition that individuals could also take charge of their own destiny, rather than a person's station in life being an immutable 'gift' from God. World War I, based on political reasons, destroyed completely the economic gains of the second half of the Industrial Revolution to the extent that the world did not return to its upward path until after World War II some 30 years later. As well as the immense and tragic loss of life which any war brings, the loss of talent, the hysteresis which resulted made for a lost generation subject to poverty and disease which had been thought to have been eradicated.

When memorials are undertaken in 2014 to commemorate the dead and wounded of the 1914–1918 War we should also take time to think about the living who endured. Their suffering during the inter-War years, years of heightened nationalism, disease, poverty and malnutrition brought on during the Great Depression, often proved as fatal as a bullet on the battlefield. Their struggles in the face of insurmountable odds was the price of excessive nationalism and myopic politicians. We, who live in an age of plenty, an age of social media, an age of conspicuous consumption, an age in which poverty and starvation has been replaced by obesity in many high-income economies, should not only honour the memories of those who died, but exalt them for the sacrifices they made. We should give thanks that, despite conflicts which continue to rage in the world today, many of us are now safe from the threat of war and able to enjoy the best of what life has to offer, not endure it. However tough life gets for us in the 21st century, it has ceased to be "nasty, brutish and short" for more of us than ever before.

I wish you all a wonderful and fulfilling 2014. May you enjoy the fruits of your labours more than ever.

Holiday season musings

As I write the wind outside is blowing up a storm. Here in north London it is wet and blustery, with wind speeds forecast to increase as the day progresses. The upside, if there is one, is that it is unseasonably warm for Winter. That English weather has become less predictable is surely uncontestable. However, in my childhood English weather was said to be highly changeable. Around the time I was seven or so, I have a strong recollection of being on holiday in Margate. I was standing on one side of the street in the bright, dry sunshine while there was rain on the other side of the street. I have never experienced such an amazing dichotomy of weather since!

The weather in that street in Margate is a suitable metaphor for the planet we inhabit. While a great deal of the Earth is a strong parallel for the sunny side of the street, too much of the planet we call home is suffering from inclement weather. While western Europe has enjoyed the sunshine and not suffered war on its own soil since 1945, parts of Africa and the Middle East continue to seek shelter from the vicissitudes of war and turmoil. History suggests that famine has now largely been abolished in much of the northern hemisphere; war has not yet been abolished but has largely disappeared from vast areas of planet Earth. The seasonal message of PEACE ON EARTH still seems a long way off, but I am optimistic that humanity is at least moving in the right direction.

One of the causes for my optimism stems from my current reading: Grand Pursuit, by Sylvia Nasar. Subtitled "The Story of the People Who Made Modern Economics: A Story of Economic Genius", this book starts by reminding the reader of the dire state of human material existence prior to the end of World War II. It makes for salutary reading, and is a strong indication of the almost infinite achievements which humanity is capable of when we put our minds and our will to work. The economic problems we face today are more how we deal with a world of plenty (as evidenced by ever-increasing obesity levels) rather than how we deal with a lack of resources, and making them go round. To some degree we have begun to conquer the economic problem: how to make scarce (finite) resources available for almost-infinite human desires. The key to this has been human ingenuity. While physical resources are finite, the human imagination is infinite in scope, allowing us to find increasingly better and more productive ways in which to utilise those resources. Long may this continue, until such a time as we invent the replicator, a feature of Star Trek, enabling us to create something almost out of nothing. 3D printers seem to be the beginning of such a device.

It is also the season when it is customary to be optimistic. May I wish each and every one of you all of the compliments of the season. May you enjoy the holiday season surrounded by friends and family. And, more importantly perhaps, may 2014 be the year in which you go a long way to fulfilling your potential, and the world finds itself a long way nearer to peace on earth and goodwill among all of us. 

Yids, again....

Back in November I wrote a blog here in response to Peter Herbert (of the Black Lawyer's Association) calling for ban on Spurs' supporters chanting the word "Yid". While many of us had thought the issue had been done to death and gone away, it seems that the Football Association (FA) has decided to raise it's head over the parapet and has claimed that it is planning to prosecute anyone using the term in football grounds.
Apart from being misguided, one would also imagine that the FA had other, more important taks with which to occupy it's time: the England national team, for example; tearing young Englishmen and women away from their games consoles to play football; and to spend time making it clear to Sepp Blather the wrongness of FIFA's decision to hold the World Cup in Qatar, and how removing it to Winter would be disruptive to where the real power is in football (where the big players play, becuase that is what the money goes to).
However, I digress. So let me repeat what I stated in November (with some marginal editorial changes). Firstly, I would refer Peter Herbert, David Baddiel, the FA and others with an axe to grind to John Efron's learned article on the usage of the term Yids by Spurs supporters. It illustrates clearly the history of its usage, its social implications, and how it has become ingrained into the character of Spurs' supporters, so that any attempts to ban it (a clear infringement of freedom of speech) would be futile. From a more personal perspective, let me state once again quite simply the following: •I am a person of the Jewish faith, a member of the 12 tribes of Israel.
•I abhor totally and unequivocally any form of racism or anti-Semitism.
•If a gentile calls me a Yid then I am very likely to be offended (at the very least), as this is a term which has a long history of being abusive when applied to Jews, and has often been followed by physical oppression and violence.
•The use of the term by Spurs supporters began in the late 1970s as a response to anti-Semitic abuse from opposing fans, who (perhaps mistakenly) believe Spurs to be a Jewish football club. •It has since been claimed as a badge of honour by Spurs fans, for whom many (especially the younger fans) it has become synonymous with supporting Spurs. Such younger fans typically have no knowledge of its origins as an anti-Semitic epithet. The same may also be increasingly said of younger fans of opposing teams.
•It's use in the Jewish community has been ongoing for centuries, mainly in the communities of Eastern Europe and their descendants who made their way to the UK (in particular). It is used in such communities in much the same way as Englishmen may refer to each other as "mate", "pal" or "buddy".
Messrs Herbert and Baddiel, and the FA: if you are truly serious about removing racism and anti-Semitism from football then you should start by dealing with the large sections of clubs such as Chelsea which constantly barrack Spurs on the basis of our alleged Jewish connections. When they stop calling us "dirty Yids" and making gas chamber sounds, when they stop singing "Spurs are on their way to Auschwitz" I will happily then campaign for my fellow Spurs fans to stop applying the term Yids to ourselves. It would be helpful, of course, if the Jewish supporters at other clubs, especially Chelsea and Arsenal where they are also a significant minority, did something to prevent or dissuade their fellow supporters from their anitsemitic chanting. I am delighted that Spurs themselves have seen fit to give this so-called FA initiative the short shrift it deserves. I intend to answer the proposed club questionnaire to season ticket holders using all of the above, and would ask fellow Yids to do the same. Ivan "DrHotspur" Cohen
Glad to be a Yid in every sense of the word.

Summertime, and the living is ....

It has been a weird Summer, even by English standards. First it appeared as if there would be no Summer, yet in recent weeks it has been hotter than seasonal in London, with temperatures exceeding those in places like Miami and the Caribbean. We English like nothing more than complaining about the weather, and although we generally welcome tropical heat and the excuse to shed our clothing, the lack of air conditioning anywhere makes any kind of respite very difficult. Fortunately, in my house we have a number of ceiling fans which, although not as effective as air conditioning, do provide some cooling, enabling a little work to be done during the middle of the day.

It has also been a Summer largely devoid of football. Every other year when the domestic season has ended, we have a World Cup or EUROs to keep our minds and spirits occupied. This year is the biannual hiatus from such international events. The only real Summer football in 2013 has been the Women's EUROs in Sweden, which have been a joy to watch. The quality of the football played has been exceptionally good, without the ill behaviour and play-acting which plagues the mens' game. On a personal level it has brought back to me the many happy memories of my own involvement in the womens' game, especially during my time in Asheville NC in the 1980s. It is certainly pleasing to know that women's football is alive and well and continues to thrive and grow, both in quantity and in quality.

Summer is also a time when journalists find themselves with too little to write about and opt for fiction or speculation. It is the "silly season", nowhere more so than the sports' pages of British newspapers. Here we find tales of mystery and imagination, linking all manner of footballers to all manner of football clubs, often without any foundation in fact. And it is not only the newspapers who like to write fiction. Recently the Spanish newspaper La Marca insisted that Real Madrid had struck a deal with Tottenham Hotspur for Gareth Bale for some £80m. This at the time when Spurs, including Bale, were on a trip to Asia, playing in Hong Kong. None of the pictures from HK showed Bale to be a disinterested party to Spurs' activities, nor one who might have been involved in an impending transfer. The story in La Marca seems to be part of continued efforts by Real Madrid to unsettle Bale before pouncing in the transfer market. For me this is tantamount to "tapping up" and Real Madrid need to be severely censured by UEFA. It would help all concerned if such activities led to a ban from Champions League football and from activities in the transfer market. Draconian, perhaps. But it would eliminate tapping up from the European stage.

And so, as we prepare to enter the final month of Summer, August, I must return to my professional writing, especially as deadlines loom large. I wish you a pleasant month before we all return to the fray which is normal work and school life. I am looking forward to building a desktop computer with my son, which he has designed and I have paid for the parts. A father-son project like this will be fun and rewarding!

Serving up justice

About the time I was due to have heart surgery last year I received a an official letter. You can always tell an official letter in the UK as it comes in a brown envelope. This official letter was unlike anything I had ever received before: it was my first ever call for Jury Service. It was meant to start in December, but for health reasons I asked to postpone it, and so began my Jury Service at the beginning of June.

Jury Service requires a UK citizen (selected at random from the electoral roll) to attend for 10 working days. Each Jury is selected at random from those currently on Jury Service. Each Monday and Wednesday a new crop of potential jurors arrives, and is treated to a video presentation as to what they can expect. At the Crown Court where I was serving most cases seem to last for a few days at most. I spent most of my first week sitting around waiting to be (randomly) selected, playing chess against willing victims, and enjoying the company of fellow citizens who also found themselves awaiting the call to be on a Jury.

It was not until the Thursday of my first week of service that I was finally called. A group of 40 potential jurors—the Jury panel—had been selected to serve on a "longer case which would be paper heavy and last for up to six weeks". Anyone for whom English was not their first language or were weak would be removed, as would anyone who could provide evidence to the Judge that they had previously booked and paid for a holiday. This whittled down the 40, and on Friday a Jury of 12 were randomly selected with 2 additional people in reserve.

And so commenced my real work as a Juror in a real case. The case involved a gang who were stealing high-end BMWs, taking them to a "chop shop" and cutting them up to export and sell the parts overseas. The evidence consisted of some 300 pages of written and photograph exhibits in a "Jury bundle", several hours of police video surveillance, and witness testimony from several witnesses including defendants. It was confusing at first, long, arduous and intriguing. But it was particularly interesting to see the Justice system in action from the inside, and to be an integral part of it. Had I any doubts about the Jury system beforehand they would quickly have been dispelled by my experience. Of course, I may have been lucky to have served on a Jury with a fine bunch of men and women, who all took their responsibilities seriously. This does not mean we did not have a laugh in the Jury room, but in our task to review and assess the evidence a responsible attitude prevailed with a camaraderie that such a short acquaintance with each other would not have seemed possible.

Both counsels, for the Crown and for the defence, were professional in the extreme, yet not without wit. The English system is adversarial, but remains typically English: very civilised, with strict protocols, unlike the melodrama which seems to be the norm in US courts. The weapons of counsel are selected presentation of elements of the evidence and a supreme command of the English language. The judge reigned supreme over the courtroom saying very little until his summing up and direction after all the evidence had been put before us. His scrupulous fairness to the defendants seems all the more remarkable in hindsight: he knew of the defendants' prior convictions and history, which had been kept from us, the Jury.

Although it would be an exaggeration to describe my experience as a Juror as pleasurable, it was a pleasure to work with so many interesting, intelligent and amiable people on the same Jury. It was an honour to be able to serve my community, and more importantly to serve justice. We, the Jury, were meticulous in sifting through the evidence before coming to a certain conclusion based on it. Although Jury Service disrupted my plans for a Summer of productive writing, I found it inspiring: I learned something new, something different, and got a feel for part of the national institutions with which I am fortunate not to have been involved. To my fellow Jurors I owe a debt of thanks for the collegial and friendly manner in which we interacted. To the counsels and Judge I am grateful to know that the system of Justice in this country is in very capable hands, unlike so many other countries. To our Jury usher, "The Don", a huge vote of thanks for the friendly and capable way in which you helped us to assume the role of Jurors and deliver the verdict. This was an experience which I shall never forget, and one which I am delighted to have been part of.

The end of a long, hard slog!

The football season is virtually over. It has been a long. hard slog, with many a slip, yellow card, suspension and injury 'twixt game and final league table.

Once again the English Premier League has been won by Manchester United, although this is the last time they will do so under manager, Sir Alex Ferguson. Once again, my beloved Tottenham Hotspur were pipped to the fourth place spot by local rivals, Arsenal, by one point! Once again the final league table of the season does not lie. 

Where a team finishes is not completely determined by the final game of the season, although for many onlookers it makes for an exciting finish when it appears to be the case. For Spurs, we needed a win in our final home game against Sunderland and for Arsenal to slip up away to Newcastle if we were to gain that coveted fourth spot. But it takes a whole season to reach that point, and for me Spurs once again let slip a strong position by a weak run-in over the final month or so. It was not quite the implosion of 2011-2012, but from having the team's destiny in our own hands we slipped up. For me (and others) the possible turning point was the home loss to Fulham, one of the weaker teams in the EPL. Those three points would have made all the difference last weekend!

So now it is all over, and it is time to turn our attentions elsewhere. For me I shall spend more time focused on my writing, especially on Economics and Finance. I am hopeful of completing a new textbook for sale next Spring, in addition to writing a study guide. I also hope to spend more time writing this blog, and in particular considering the vagaries of the Summer transfer window. I shall try not to worry too much about speculation, which seems to flow so freely at this time of year, but concentrate on whatever facts come to hand. 

So let me finish up by wishing you all a great Summer, including a Champions League Final worthy of the name.

What use is Economics?

I recently finished reading What's the Use of Economics, a collection of essays edited by Diane Coyle. Published in September 2012, the fourth anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the essays are meant as an inward-looking yet apologetic riposte to critics who feel that there has been a serious failure of Economics as it did not predict the financial crisis which began in 2007, and led to the "great recession" which has affected many high-income economies ever since.

Of course, the premise of such criticism is that one of the key tasks of Economics is prediction. This is something which I would personally refute. I am firmly on the side of legendary baseball player and manager, Casey Stengel, I never make predictions, especially about the future.  (Niels Bohr similarly said "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.") For me Economics is NOT about making predictions. That is not to say that aspects of Economics cannot be used to make predictions, but that they should be used like any predictions, cautiously and with judgment. 

Economics is a social science: that is to say that it applies scientific method to understanding economic aspects of human behaviour and interaction. Unlike 'pure' sciences, when dealing with human activity we consider the probability of how things behave; there is no definitive. Thus, if the price of a product drops there is every likelihood that quantity of it demanded will increase. However, all such economic statements are subject to the assumption of ceteris paribus, other things remaining unchanged. Thus if the price of a product drops and at the same time people's incomes are reduced the likelihood of an increase in the quantity demanded is also reduced, if not negated.

When we look at the bigger picture, Macroeconomics, it becomes more fuzzy due to momentum effects. A cut in government spending will in all probability reduce employment in the public sector, leading to a lower aggregate level of spending in the first instance. This will lead to less income for shopkeepers and others, who in turn will reduce their spending, and so on. This is a classic example of Keynes' multiplier effect. However, while this is a fairly simple matter of deduction one of the key drivers of any economy is confidence, both among consumers and in business, about which it is far less easy to make inferences. This is not something new: back in the 1930s Joan Robinson famously discussed this under the heading of "animal spirits". Confidence can be boosted or reduced by factors which are obvious, and sometimes by factors which are not so obvious. It is not possible to make even the simplest of predictions about factors which are not obvious.

Back in the 1970s as an undergraduate at the University of Essex, I was taught that Macroeconomic prediction was quite simple when an economy was already on an upswing or downswing, but that it was impossible to make predictions about turning points: when an economy stops growing and enters recession, or when an economy stops receding and starts growing. That difficulty has recently been highlighted in the UK press with its interminable discussions on "double dip" and even "triple dip" recessions. Yet the data we need to determine where an economy lies in the business cycle lags well behind, making it difficult to know when (e.g.) an economy has turned the corner and come out of recession. To try and make predictions about such matters is akin to replicating King Canute: it can only end in tears. And, I would argue, it is not really the job of Economics to make such predictions. Those who argue they can accurately make such predictions are either charlatans or arrogant in their own judgment of their own skills and abilities.

It is time for Economists to take back our profession. If people desire predictions about the future they might well be better off turning to astrologers, tea-leaf readers and others of that ilk. That is not to say that Economics cannot offer predictions, but if they are true to the subject, they will remain slightly fuzzy and be used cautiously and with judgment.

Musings... a little something of the weekend

Is there a more enticing day of the week than Friday? I usually try to work from home on a Friday. The peace and quiet of having the place to myself for a few hours is a tonic. This week, of course, both of my kids are home on their half-term holidays, so I don't have the tonic.

Of course, Friday is a two-edged sword. It heralds the onset of the weekend, and especially the arrival of Shabbat (the day of rest) on Friday evening. That is truly something worth waiting for. But it also requires the house to be cleaned and all of the cooking done for Shabbat, which is something of a monumental task on its own, let along when I am also trying to tie up the week's loose ends of my workload. I should count my blessings that at least my kids help with some of the housework when they come in from school on Friday. Getting them to help when they've been home all week requires a lot more shouting!

Friday is also the day which heralds the football fixtures for the next few days. After a week or so of European fixtures—well done, Spurs, against Lyon... eventually—it will be good to get back to the bread and butter of the English Premier League. Although it seems like forever since I was last at White Hart Lane, at least Spurs have been on television, and Monday's fixture away to West Ham is no exception. I remain hopeful that Spurs will gain a much-needed three points, despite the possibility of a European hangover.

Although it is tempting to engage in analysis of the tactics and performance of Spurs against Lyon I will simply make one point: the gap left by the injury to Sandro is huge. An abyss. Scott Parker is an immense player, a footballer of some class, but still looks to be nowhere near his form of last season. Moussa Dembele is a player of undoubted potential, but for me lacks some personal confidence. His strong run last night which led to the goal is something I would like to see MUCH more of. But I wonder if the chemistry between Dembele and Parker is right? The central midfield pairing is crucial to the rest of the team, both attacking and defending, and also when trying to maintain possession. The Parker/Dembele combination lacks any real creative flair, and is not robust enough when defending. But with the spotlight firmly on Gareth Bale for his magnificent contributions to the team in recent weeks, and the critics roundly weighing in on Adebayor (whom I thought played much better last night: more active and more thoughtful in his running), this midfield issue may not have been fully noticed.

Still, it would be churlish to be overly critical of a Spurs team lying fourth in the EPL and into the last 16 of the Europa League. But when, like me, you have grown up and in your formative years lived with Spurs consistently in the top three and playing regularly against Europe's finest the perspective is different. So with this thought in mind I wish you all a splendid weekend, and to my Jewish relatives and friends I bid Shabbat shalom and chag Purim sameach.

The work year...

For many people the new work year has already begun. For academics like myself it will begin in earnest on Monday week, when courses at my own University (www.richmond.ac.uk) recommence. However, a return to the routine of work starts tomorrow, with the usual slew of pre-semester meetings and correspondence. While I have enjoyed the past several weeks of relative peace and quiet, enabling me to engage in some productive reading and writing, I am also excited about the return to the classroom.

Although there is a great deal of satisfaction to be derived from reading and writing research papers and books, it does not have the same "buzz" that comes from meeting a new set of students for the first time as the new semester gets underway. Although there are bound to be a few students with whom I am already familiar, the chance to meet afresh some new, curious and inquiring minds offers a great deal of promise. With any luck the students will be good enough to fulfil their own promise, and also to ensure that the promise of new intellectual relationships bears enough fruit to fulfil that promise.

Of course, for students it may appear that the relationship with an instructor is entirely one-sided, with the passage of knowledge and skills to them from the instructor. But that is not the way I like to think of it; neither is it a view which I find healthy. I like to think that while I am able to educate my students by providing them with an introduction to certain formal skills, knowledge and techniques of analysis, equally I am able to learn a great deal from them. At the very least I am able to learn about the places from which they come, often countries with which I have little more than a passing knowledge. But each student is a fascinating individual, to whose talents and characteristics I need to tweak my methods of teaching. From them I take away changes to my own methods, and to how I relate to each and every one of them. I genuinely believe that the day I become blasé about my relationships with my students is the day I should retire or seek another professional challenge.

And then there is the real world. As an Associate Professor in Finance and Economics the real world provides the backdrop to everything I teach in the classroom. And the real world is never short of surprises and challenges for the professional in Finance and Economics. The real world influences both my teaching and, more directly perhaps, my research. For some months I have been working in a research paper dealing with the 'crisis' in the eurozone. But the changing background has made it difficult for me to write the last few concluding paragraphs. Every time I think I have written something which will stand up regardless of facts "on the ground", circumstances change and I am forced to rethink and rewrite. This is both frustrating and exciting; it is the vivacity of the real world with which professionals in my area are engaged. However, the existence of a looming deadline means that I will need to take a stance and no longer sit on the wall!

In recent years my first blog of the year has been one of looking forward to see what might happen in the new year. This year I am avoiding that perspective, largely because it is either a thankless task—the predictions are wholly wrong—or because the predictions themselves turn out to be trite and banal—the predictions are apparently true and seem obvious in hindsight. I hope you, dear reader, will continue to read my musings during 2013, and offer your own views by way of return.

Politicians: a thin line between love and hate?

Don't you just love politicians? It doesn't matter who we vote into office, it seems they just don't get it. They appear to have no idea about nor connection with the lives led by those who put them in office and pay their salaries. I don't know if this comes form mixing almost entirely with other politicians, and only coming into very limited contact with ordinary mortals when a photo-opportunity is required, or if there is some other factor at work. Despite this I do not wish politicians harm; in a democracy we will soon have an opportunity to vote this lot out and the other lot in at the next election, and we all have the right to stand ourselves for office if we don't like any of the alternatives on offer.
So, who is he referring to, I hear you ask yourself? The above could apply in any major democracy. I could be referring to yesterday's mid-term review of the UK's coalition government, or even the Obama administration in the USA. The same sentiments would apply equally to both, as well as the French, German and other governments currently in office. Politicians have a penchant for spewing out statistics which they think shows them and their policies in a good light, while ignoring the statistics thrown out by the other lot to show them in a bad light. Politicians are rarely able to give a straight, honest and direct answer to a simple question. But then, their primary objective is to get re-elected, so they perceive disingenuousness and obfuscation as the path of least resistance. Objective truth is seen as being hurtful to their objective. Or, more accurately, they don't think that we, the public, who vote for them and pay their salaries, can handle the truth.
It is was not yesterday's mid-term review by the UK coalition which has exercised me recently, but rather the European authorities. I am currently finishing up some research on the eurocrisis, with a particular focus on the eurozone. My main objective was to compare the eurozone with an Optimal Currency Area (OCA), its theoretical version. Or that's what it should be. In practice, the eurozone is as close to being an OCA as the Earth is to Proxima Centauri: a matter of some light years. That the eurozone as an institution needs some re-engineering is something that even the most ardent of eurocrats seems to recognise. But in reading the thoughts of Jörg Asmussen, Executive Board Member of the European Central Bank, in his "Agenda 2013 - the next steps in completing EMU", the profound distance between politicians and the general pubic became even more stark. Unlike our MPs and local councillors, we cannot elect someone else to replace too many of our European politicians.
Let me state for the record that I am a supporter of the European Project in principle. I do not wish to see the UK outside the EU. However, I have major issues with the current structure of the EU, which in my view has led to the misconstruction of the eurozone, and will prevent the latter from being rebuilt properly as an OCA. The biggest issue is that of accountability: the European Parliament does not properly function as a parliament. It is time to remove the Commissioners and rebuild Parliament as a a true representative body of the European peoples. Until this occurs it will not be possible to have a fiscal transfer mechanism (one of the requirements of an OCA), which would require cross-border EU taxation of some form or other. And there should be no taxation without representation, a concept so basic that it was first expressed nearly 250 years ago. Unless and until there is root-and-branch reform of the EU institutional setup there will be no serious and workable attempts to deal with the eurocrisis in our time. The Great Contraction could end up as the 21st century's Great Depression. A restructuring of the EU could prove the be the engine for growth that the world needs desperately, and make the EU more attractive to its detractors. Who knows? If they can manage to do this, maybe one day we will learn to love our politicians!