In the first instance, the fixture list issued today is subject to some changes as the TV companies, primarily SKY Sports, gets involved and some fixtures get moved to a Sunday afternoon or Monday evening. This means that until we know the full extent of the televised fixtures it os not possible for the true football supporter to begin to make any other plans. How can we be expected to book our holidays in advance, or make plans to visit long-distance relatives and friends until we know the fixture list inclusive of TV dates? And the Setanta situation makes this all the more uncertain. There remains the possibility of Setanta not being able to fulfill its financial obligations to the football authorities in England and/or Scotland, which will involve other TV companies seeking to take over the TV rights, which is likely to lead to additional minor changes in the fixture dates as a result.
The likely changes for TV means that my excitement for next season has already become tempered by one constraint. But there is a second constraint which will also affect my excitement via expectations: the transfer market. At the time of writing I do not know what the likely Spurs line-up will be against Liverpool on August 15th (or 16th or 17th). Which players will the manager, Harry Redknapp, bring in to bolster the squad? Which players will he sell? After all, it has long been publicised that he will need to sell players to finance his purchases.
At this time of year the newspapers are full of new transfer rumours each day from each and every club. And such rumours are nearly always due to reliable inside sources. If this were really true then football would suffer more leaks of information than a leaky sieve. Indeed, the world of British politics would seem positively ethical and decent by comparison! But we all know the truth: rumours are part and parcel of the marketing of newspapers; they help to sell more copies. And there is also a greater likelihood of being able after the event to point to rumours which prove to be truthful if there is a wide diversity of rumours put forward in the first place. As any Finance student knows, the simplest way of reducing risk is to diversify!!
For those of us who watch transfer market activity, rather than focus on rumours, this has been something of a quiet transfer window thus far. We have had a couple of extraordinarily expensive player transfers, with Kaka and the Ronaldo going to Real Madrid. But the action in the Premiership itself has been very sparse to-date. For me the reason is simple: the credit crunch which has affected the rest of the world for more than a year has now bitten into football and profligacy is no longer viable. Most transfers tend to be financed via borrowings, largely from the banking system, but this is not as likely this year as previously. Banks are either unwilling to lend, or will only do so at prohibitive rates of interest or other very constraining terms and conditions. Like my team, Spurs, many Premiership clubs will need to sell before they can buy. And many clubs would prefer not to sell until they know they have a purchase or replacement in place. It is something of a "Catch 22" situation. At some point during the transfer window one or more Premiership clubs will 'blink' first, and buy before selling in the hope (rather than the expectation) that it will work out.
The situation of David Bentley at Spurs is illustrative. According to reports in the Press, Bentley has confessed to being in talks with Aston Villa, but does not wish to say more at this stage. Presumably this is true as Spurs have not issued any denial, thus they must have given Bentley permission to speak with Villa. But having paid some £16m for him last Summer, Spurs would seem unlikely to release him for a transfer fee of less than half, as reported to be likely in the Press. Knowing this the Press are speculating on player exchanges, with Ashley Young moving in the opposite direction, for example. With money available from the sale of Gareth Barry, there is some likelihood that Villa will seek a replacement as well as players to bolster their squad. But I would argue that they will need to seek 'affordable' replacements. Unless some of the wealthy benefactors of (eg) Manchester City or Chelsea make more money available for transfers, there is little money available this Summer. A greater sense of economic will kick in. And with greater regulation on the financial situation of football clubs in the not-too-distant future, even these clubs will need to think twice about spending above the norm.
So, with a sclerotic transfer market, some would argue that we may yet see most clubs fielding very similar teams next season to those who closed the 2008-2009 campaign, perhaps with a little tweaking. However, as the transfer window deadline approaches I fully expect to see some teams spend well beyond their financial reach as they panic to bring in new players. This is what leads to the demise of once-famous clubs, such as Leeds United and, more recently, Newcastle United. With more once-big clubs spiralling down the divisions, we can probably expect to see a downward spiral in average transfer fees into the foreseeable future. It will mean that the coaches will then be responsible for earning their salaries, and that prima donna players will be much more quickly found out. The days of football clubs continuously bilking the paying public for more funds to further enrich a handful of talented footballers are on the way out. The football supporting publics' financial cupboard is slowly becoming bare, with barely crumbs left. It is time that football began to truly earn the excessive rewards which it has become used to at everyone else's expense!
No comments:
Post a Comment