With the Xmas and New Year's festivities now over, the UK is slowly returning to its pre-holidays routine. Early this morning, while the sun had yet to rise, I saw children and young people once again in their school uniforms waiting for their school buses, looking glassy eyed in their early morning mental haze. Adults waited for public transport and drove their cars, presumably to work, equally as glassy eyed. The passage from holiday mode to work mode is a slow drift, and it may be a week or more before the leisurely pace of the holiday season gives way to the more usual hectic pace of London life.
The British coalition government has visited upon us its latest offerings to diminish the public debt: rises in VAT and an increase in fuel duties. The idea of looking forward to a better year than the one that has just finished is already taking a battering, and once the haze lifts the British will (suddenly?) realise how much worse off they will be this year than in 2010. Higher taxes, reduced public services, and a slew of supposedly radical reforms (typically ill-thought out and introduced without full and proper consideration) will increase the woe of those of us in employment while doing little (less?) for those out of work. And there is every possibility that the numbers of those out of work will increase significantly in 2011. Naturally, the current government will let us know in no uncertain terms that this is all the result of the profligacy of their predecessors, as governments have done since time immemorial. I suppose there is some degree of reassurance in the constancy of blame-apportionment by British politicians!
So what can we expect differently this year than last? The most immediate difference is that this time last year we were awaiting a UK general election. Unless something quite unforeseen occurs the current government are unlikely to resign and call another election. But their policies will be a sure signpost as to what is to come. For the first time in a generation or two student activism is on the rise. Similarly, we have seen an increased level of trades union opposition to government cuts. Is there any likelihood that this will cause the government to change their mind and alter their policies? Hardly! So, while we are unlikely to see any return to the heady days of industrial and political conflict of the late 1970s, we are already seeing a strong move away from the consensus politics which seem to have been much more the norm in the past 25 years or so. And with the Labour party having selected the wring Miliband brother as its leader, we can expect little by way of effective political opposition.
Africa continues to remain much the same: AIDS continues to run rampant, wars and conflicts remain in place, dictators remain unchallenged, and poverty remains the norm for ordinary, blameless millions of African people. The Middle East remains a tinderbox, where war could break out at any time, especially with the West unwilling (or unable) to rein in the nuclear ambitions of a hostile Iran. It remains increasingly unlikely that the Arab nations will see Israel as anything but a regional state: it has the wrong religion, too much of a European cultural basis, it remains a democracy, and is too convenient as an excuse for all of the flaws in those Arab countries. Any criticism of Arab countries, their politics, or their way of life is always countered with arguments about "the occupation". Were the really a concern for the ordinary Palestinians this could have been dealt with decades ago; but for now "the Palestinian issue" continues to be a good way to distract Arabs away from the internal problems in their own countries, something which has been used by every known dictator for centuries. And, as we might expect a withdrawal of Allied troops from Iraq and Afghanistan in the next year or so, it will be interesting to see if they move to a more normal state of affairs or implode if there is a vacuum!
And what of Europe? The EU has been under economic pressure, with some commentators wondering if the single European currency would survive. And why should it not? There have been worse economic crises faced by countries that that facing us now, and little changes as a result. After all, as the old saying goes: it's the rich what gets the pleasure, and the poor what gets the blame. Have you seen any corrupt politicians or bankers who may have played fast and loose with other people's money down at your local unemployment centre? Of course not. The problem is that politicians often feel they have to be seen to be making laws to restrict risk-taking activities, whether or not that will actually help things in the longer run or not. Most laws enacted nowadays have a tendency to inflict further restrictions on freedom, particularly of the ordinary person. I suppose the main argument in favour of the current UK government is that they have abolished the notion of introducing ID cards!
There is not a great deal to say about the USA: Americans say enough about very little of substance. The US is a very narrow democracy, with little difference between the two main parties to warrant comment. For all of his apparent flaws the President has made strides in areas where previously no progress was able to be made: health in particular. Similarly, everyone is talking about China, but what remains to be said which hasn't been said before? Surely as the rest of the high-income world comes out of recession, China will find itself having to deal with higher global prices and facing consequent inflation at home. Latin America remains relatively stable, with little to note except Brasil's first female president. Congratulations, Dilma!
But I have saved the best for last (almost): David Beckham. It is said that he wishes to come to the English Premier League (EPL) during the US soccer close season. This 35 year old footballing icon could bring his high profile status to an English team, and work on his own fitness. He would be a boon to the younger players of whichever team he joins, as his attitude and talent would rub off (or there would be a positive externality, as Economists call it!). It would raise even further the overseas profile of the EPL, which is already the most-watched League in the world. We all wait with bated breath to see if he will be given permission by his current employers: the L A Galaxy.
Finally, congratulations to the England cricket team on retaining the Ashes. It is always good to get one over on one's fiercest opponents. And for an England cricket team to beat the Aussies so decisively enables me, in common with so many other Englishmen and women, to engage in some very pleasant schadenfreude. May I take this opportunity to wish you all a happy and healthy 2011 in which some of your dreams come true.
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