Summertime blues?

Summer in England is inconstant. One day the weather will be warm and sunny, the next cool and rainy. In fact, replace "one day" with "one hour" and the same applies. The predictable thing about the weather in England is its unpredictability. For some this is a cause for complaint; for others, myself included, it is one of the key attractions of living in a temperate climate on one of a series of islands off the north-east coast of continental Europe.

Now matter how unpredictable the weather in England, it is virtually guaranteed to remain within given limits. The possibility of snow is zero, although there can be the occasional day or two of tropical heat. It is this limited range of possibilities which makes the unpredictability attractive.

The same can also be said for English politics. In many ways it is even more predictable than the weather. I would argue that this is characteristic of a modern, stable democracy. There is no chance of an English version of the Arab Spring. The same is true of most of England's national neighbours. The main source of volatility is from second-generation migrants who are torn between their cultural roots and the culture of their adopted homeland. Experience shows that by the third generation most incoming families have become assimilated, even when they maintain connections to their roots. After all, isn't the stability why such migrant families moved in the first place?

Even where finance and the economy is concerned, there is a limited range of unpredictable volatility. For the individual or individual family the volatility may seem much more of a concern, although even then it is typically a relatively short time before they return to a more acceptable state of affairs than exist during an economic downturn (I speak from experience).

For those living in less developed countries the situation is much more parlous. The Horn of Africa is one location where unpredictability is also within a limited range, but the norm within that range is less than attractive. Famine due to severe weather conditions is much more commonplace than anyone with a conscience would regard as acceptable. When accompanied by war, or internal conflict, the situation on the ground is exacerbated for ordinary families. Warlords and others will accumulate whatever produce exists, making the famine all the worse by excluding most people from access to it.

Such a situation is now current in eastern Africa. Twice we have seen Bob Geldof and others run global charity concerts (Live Aid in 1985 and Live 8 in 2005) to raise funds to stem the tide of poverty in Africa and elsewhere. Despite these huge and laudable efforts, the problems remain. They would appear to be inevitable. Despite the fund-raising and the intellectual efforts of Development Economists, and the goodwill of well-meaning politicians, people continue to die from starvation in Africa. This does not mean that the world should shrug its shoulders and do nothing, or turn a blind eye; rather we need to look at this problem from a different, more radical perspective. That requires some other things which are also afflicted by famine: (i) the will to succeed, (ii) the acceptance of radical, entrepreneurial ideas.

However, the world is a cautious, conservative place, with people everywhere afraid to embrace new ideas and suggestions. Some people, as we have seen, are so fundamental in their beliefs that they would prefer to main and kill rather than even hear new ideas which might possibly come into conflict with their own. To bow to these pressures—the inertia of the status quoⓒ—is to accept what currently is; a form of surrender, which is inimical to human progress. New ideas need to be granted a full hearing, especially where problems exist which have seemed to be intractable for a ling time. Those who decry such inventiveness are themselves modern Luddites who would be happy to see us return to a contemporary dark age. Such people are easy to spot: their favourite word is no; their inability to listen to  or make persuasive argument is their obvious characteristic. Such people give me the blues.