Back in November I wrote a blog here in response to Peter Herbert (of the Black Lawyer's Association) calling for ban on Spurs' supporters chanting the word "Yid". While many of us had thought the issue had been done to death and gone away, it seems that the Football Association (FA) has decided to raise it's head over the parapet and has claimed that it is planning to prosecute anyone using the term in football grounds.
Apart from being misguided, one would also imagine that the FA had other, more important taks with which to occupy it's time: the England national team, for example; tearing young Englishmen and women away from their games consoles to play football; and to spend time making it clear to Sepp Blather the wrongness of FIFA's decision to hold the World Cup in Qatar, and how removing it to Winter would be disruptive to where the real power is in football (where the big players play, becuase that is what the money goes to).
However, I digress. So let me repeat what I stated in November (with some marginal editorial changes). Firstly, I would refer Peter Herbert, David Baddiel, the FA and others with an axe to grind to John Efron's learned article on the usage of the term Yids by Spurs supporters. It illustrates clearly the history of its usage, its social implications, and how it has become ingrained into the character of Spurs' supporters, so that any attempts to ban it (a clear infringement of freedom of speech) would be futile. From a more personal perspective, let me state once again quite simply the following: •I am a person of the Jewish faith, a member of the 12 tribes of Israel.
•I abhor totally and unequivocally any form of racism or anti-Semitism.
•If a gentile calls me a Yid then I am very likely to be offended (at the very least), as this is a term which has a long history of being abusive when applied to Jews, and has often been followed by physical oppression and violence.
•The use of the term by Spurs supporters began in the late 1970s as a response to anti-Semitic abuse from opposing fans, who (perhaps mistakenly) believe Spurs to be a Jewish football club. •It has since been claimed as a badge of honour by Spurs fans, for whom many (especially the younger fans) it has become synonymous with supporting Spurs. Such younger fans typically have no knowledge of its origins as an anti-Semitic epithet. The same may also be increasingly said of younger fans of opposing teams.
•It's use in the Jewish community has been ongoing for centuries, mainly in the communities of Eastern Europe and their descendants who made their way to the UK (in particular). It is used in such communities in much the same way as Englishmen may refer to each other as "mate", "pal" or "buddy".
Messrs Herbert and Baddiel, and the FA: if you are truly serious about removing racism and anti-Semitism from football then you should start by dealing with the large sections of clubs such as Chelsea which constantly barrack Spurs on the basis of our alleged Jewish connections. When they stop calling us "dirty Yids" and making gas chamber sounds, when they stop singing "Spurs are on their way to Auschwitz" I will happily then campaign for my fellow Spurs fans to stop applying the term Yids to ourselves. It would be helpful, of course, if the Jewish supporters at other clubs, especially Chelsea and Arsenal where they are also a significant minority, did something to prevent or dissuade their fellow supporters from their anitsemitic chanting. I am delighted that Spurs themselves have seen fit to give this so-called FA initiative the short shrift it deserves. I intend to answer the proposed club questionnaire to season ticket holders using all of the above, and would ask fellow Yids to do the same.
Ivan "DrHotspur" Cohen
Glad to be a Yid in every sense of the word.
Monday, September 16, 2013
Friday, July 26, 2013
Summertime, and the living is ....
It has been a weird Summer, even by English standards. First it appeared as if there would be no Summer, yet in recent weeks it has been hotter than seasonal in London, with temperatures exceeding those in places like Miami and the Caribbean. We English like nothing more than complaining about the weather, and although we generally welcome tropical heat and the excuse to shed our clothing, the lack of air conditioning anywhere makes any kind of respite very difficult. Fortunately, in my house we have a number of ceiling fans which, although not as effective as air conditioning, do provide some cooling, enabling a little work to be done during the middle of the day.
It has also been a Summer largely devoid of football. Every other year when the domestic season has ended, we have a World Cup or EUROs to keep our minds and spirits occupied. This year is the biannual hiatus from such international events. The only real Summer football in 2013 has been the Women's EUROs in Sweden, which have been a joy to watch. The quality of the football played has been exceptionally good, without the ill behaviour and play-acting which plagues the mens' game. On a personal level it has brought back to me the many happy memories of my own involvement in the womens' game, especially during my time in Asheville NC in the 1980s. It is certainly pleasing to know that women's football is alive and well and continues to thrive and grow, both in quantity and in quality.
Summer is also a time when journalists find themselves with too little to write about and opt for fiction or speculation. It is the "silly season", nowhere more so than the sports' pages of British newspapers. Here we find tales of mystery and imagination, linking all manner of footballers to all manner of football clubs, often without any foundation in fact. And it is not only the newspapers who like to write fiction. Recently the Spanish newspaper La Marca insisted that Real Madrid had struck a deal with Tottenham Hotspur for Gareth Bale for some £80m. This at the time when Spurs, including Bale, were on a trip to Asia, playing in Hong Kong. None of the pictures from HK showed Bale to be a disinterested party to Spurs' activities, nor one who might have been involved in an impending transfer. The story in La Marca seems to be part of continued efforts by Real Madrid to unsettle Bale before pouncing in the transfer market. For me this is tantamount to "tapping up" and Real Madrid need to be severely censured by UEFA. It would help all concerned if such activities led to a ban from Champions League football and from activities in the transfer market. Draconian, perhaps. But it would eliminate tapping up from the European stage.
And so, as we prepare to enter the final month of Summer, August, I must return to my professional writing, especially as deadlines loom large. I wish you a pleasant month before we all return to the fray which is normal work and school life. I am looking forward to building a desktop computer with my son, which he has designed and I have paid for the parts. A father-son project like this will be fun and rewarding!
Thursday, July 04, 2013
Serving up justice
About the time I was due to have heart surgery last year I received a an official letter. You can always tell an official letter in the UK as it comes in a brown envelope. This official letter was unlike anything I had ever received before: it was my first ever call for Jury Service. It was meant to start in December, but for health reasons I asked to postpone it, and so began my Jury Service at the beginning of June.
Jury Service requires a UK citizen (selected at random from the electoral roll) to attend for 10 working days. Each Jury is selected at random from those currently on Jury Service. Each Monday and Wednesday a new crop of potential jurors arrives, and is treated to a video presentation as to what they can expect. At the Crown Court where I was serving most cases seem to last for a few days at most. I spent most of my first week sitting around waiting to be (randomly) selected, playing chess against willing victims, and enjoying the company of fellow citizens who also found themselves awaiting the call to be on a Jury.
It was not until the Thursday of my first week of service that I was finally called. A group of 40 potential jurors—the Jury panel—had been selected to serve on a "longer case which would be paper heavy and last for up to six weeks". Anyone for whom English was not their first language or were weak would be removed, as would anyone who could provide evidence to the Judge that they had previously booked and paid for a holiday. This whittled down the 40, and on Friday a Jury of 12 were randomly selected with 2 additional people in reserve.
And so commenced my real work as a Juror in a real case. The case involved a gang who were stealing high-end BMWs, taking them to a "chop shop" and cutting them up to export and sell the parts overseas. The evidence consisted of some 300 pages of written and photograph exhibits in a "Jury bundle", several hours of police video surveillance, and witness testimony from several witnesses including defendants. It was confusing at first, long, arduous and intriguing. But it was particularly interesting to see the Justice system in action from the inside, and to be an integral part of it. Had I any doubts about the Jury system beforehand they would quickly have been dispelled by my experience. Of course, I may have been lucky to have served on a Jury with a fine bunch of men and women, who all took their responsibilities seriously. This does not mean we did not have a laugh in the Jury room, but in our task to review and assess the evidence a responsible attitude prevailed with a camaraderie that such a short acquaintance with each other would not have seemed possible.
Both counsels, for the Crown and for the defence, were professional in the extreme, yet not without wit. The English system is adversarial, but remains typically English: very civilised, with strict protocols, unlike the melodrama which seems to be the norm in US courts. The weapons of counsel are selected presentation of elements of the evidence and a supreme command of the English language. The judge reigned supreme over the courtroom saying very little until his summing up and direction after all the evidence had been put before us. His scrupulous fairness to the defendants seems all the more remarkable in hindsight: he knew of the defendants' prior convictions and history, which had been kept from us, the Jury.
Although it would be an exaggeration to describe my experience as a Juror as pleasurable, it was a pleasure to work with so many interesting, intelligent and amiable people on the same Jury. It was an honour to be able to serve my community, and more importantly to serve justice. We, the Jury, were meticulous in sifting through the evidence before coming to a certain conclusion based on it. Although Jury Service disrupted my plans for a Summer of productive writing, I found it inspiring: I learned something new, something different, and got a feel for part of the national institutions with which I am fortunate not to have been involved. To my fellow Jurors I owe a debt of thanks for the collegial and friendly manner in which we interacted. To the counsels and Judge I am grateful to know that the system of Justice in this country is in very capable hands, unlike so many other countries. To our Jury usher, "The Don", a huge vote of thanks for the friendly and capable way in which you helped us to assume the role of Jurors and deliver the verdict. This was an experience which I shall never forget, and one which I am delighted to have been part of.
Jury Service requires a UK citizen (selected at random from the electoral roll) to attend for 10 working days. Each Jury is selected at random from those currently on Jury Service. Each Monday and Wednesday a new crop of potential jurors arrives, and is treated to a video presentation as to what they can expect. At the Crown Court where I was serving most cases seem to last for a few days at most. I spent most of my first week sitting around waiting to be (randomly) selected, playing chess against willing victims, and enjoying the company of fellow citizens who also found themselves awaiting the call to be on a Jury.
It was not until the Thursday of my first week of service that I was finally called. A group of 40 potential jurors—the Jury panel—had been selected to serve on a "longer case which would be paper heavy and last for up to six weeks". Anyone for whom English was not their first language or were weak would be removed, as would anyone who could provide evidence to the Judge that they had previously booked and paid for a holiday. This whittled down the 40, and on Friday a Jury of 12 were randomly selected with 2 additional people in reserve.
And so commenced my real work as a Juror in a real case. The case involved a gang who were stealing high-end BMWs, taking them to a "chop shop" and cutting them up to export and sell the parts overseas. The evidence consisted of some 300 pages of written and photograph exhibits in a "Jury bundle", several hours of police video surveillance, and witness testimony from several witnesses including defendants. It was confusing at first, long, arduous and intriguing. But it was particularly interesting to see the Justice system in action from the inside, and to be an integral part of it. Had I any doubts about the Jury system beforehand they would quickly have been dispelled by my experience. Of course, I may have been lucky to have served on a Jury with a fine bunch of men and women, who all took their responsibilities seriously. This does not mean we did not have a laugh in the Jury room, but in our task to review and assess the evidence a responsible attitude prevailed with a camaraderie that such a short acquaintance with each other would not have seemed possible.
Both counsels, for the Crown and for the defence, were professional in the extreme, yet not without wit. The English system is adversarial, but remains typically English: very civilised, with strict protocols, unlike the melodrama which seems to be the norm in US courts. The weapons of counsel are selected presentation of elements of the evidence and a supreme command of the English language. The judge reigned supreme over the courtroom saying very little until his summing up and direction after all the evidence had been put before us. His scrupulous fairness to the defendants seems all the more remarkable in hindsight: he knew of the defendants' prior convictions and history, which had been kept from us, the Jury.
Although it would be an exaggeration to describe my experience as a Juror as pleasurable, it was a pleasure to work with so many interesting, intelligent and amiable people on the same Jury. It was an honour to be able to serve my community, and more importantly to serve justice. We, the Jury, were meticulous in sifting through the evidence before coming to a certain conclusion based on it. Although Jury Service disrupted my plans for a Summer of productive writing, I found it inspiring: I learned something new, something different, and got a feel for part of the national institutions with which I am fortunate not to have been involved. To my fellow Jurors I owe a debt of thanks for the collegial and friendly manner in which we interacted. To the counsels and Judge I am grateful to know that the system of Justice in this country is in very capable hands, unlike so many other countries. To our Jury usher, "The Don", a huge vote of thanks for the friendly and capable way in which you helped us to assume the role of Jurors and deliver the verdict. This was an experience which I shall never forget, and one which I am delighted to have been part of.
Friday, May 24, 2013
The end of a long, hard slog!
The football season is virtually over. It has been a long. hard slog, with many a slip, yellow card, suspension and injury 'twixt game and final league table.
Once again the English Premier League has been won by Manchester United, although this is the last time they will do so under manager, Sir Alex Ferguson. Once again, my beloved Tottenham Hotspur were pipped to the fourth place spot by local rivals, Arsenal, by one point! Once again the final league table of the season does not lie.
Where a team finishes is not completely determined by the final game of the season, although for many onlookers it makes for an exciting finish when it appears to be the case. For Spurs, we needed a win in our final home game against Sunderland and for Arsenal to slip up away to Newcastle if we were to gain that coveted fourth spot. But it takes a whole season to reach that point, and for me Spurs once again let slip a strong position by a weak run-in over the final month or so. It was not quite the implosion of 2011-2012, but from having the team's destiny in our own hands we slipped up. For me (and others) the possible turning point was the home loss to Fulham, one of the weaker teams in the EPL. Those three points would have made all the difference last weekend!
So now it is all over, and it is time to turn our attentions elsewhere. For me I shall spend more time focused on my writing, especially on Economics and Finance. I am hopeful of completing a new textbook for sale next Spring, in addition to writing a study guide. I also hope to spend more time writing this blog, and in particular considering the vagaries of the Summer transfer window. I shall try not to worry too much about speculation, which seems to flow so freely at this time of year, but concentrate on whatever facts come to hand.
So let me finish up by wishing you all a great Summer, including a Champions League Final worthy of the name.
Friday, May 03, 2013
What use is Economics?
I recently finished reading What's the Use of Economics, a collection of essays edited by Diane Coyle. Published in September 2012, the fourth anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the essays are meant as an inward-looking yet apologetic riposte to critics who feel that there has been a serious failure of Economics as it did not predict the financial crisis which began in 2007, and led to the "great recession" which has affected many high-income economies ever since.
Of course, the premise of such criticism is that one of the key tasks of Economics is prediction. This is something which I would personally refute. I am firmly on the side of legendary baseball player and manager, Casey Stengel, I never make predictions, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr similarly said "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.") For me Economics is NOT about making predictions. That is not to say that aspects of Economics cannot be used to make predictions, but that they should be used like any predictions, cautiously and with judgment.
Economics is a social science: that is to say that it applies scientific method to understanding economic aspects of human behaviour and interaction. Unlike 'pure' sciences, when dealing with human activity we consider the probability of how things behave; there is no definitive. Thus, if the price of a product drops there is every likelihood that quantity of it demanded will increase. However, all such economic statements are subject to the assumption of ceteris paribus, other things remaining unchanged. Thus if the price of a product drops and at the same time people's incomes are reduced the likelihood of an increase in the quantity demanded is also reduced, if not negated.
When we look at the bigger picture, Macroeconomics, it becomes more fuzzy due to momentum effects. A cut in government spending will in all probability reduce employment in the public sector, leading to a lower aggregate level of spending in the first instance. This will lead to less income for shopkeepers and others, who in turn will reduce their spending, and so on. This is a classic example of Keynes' multiplier effect. However, while this is a fairly simple matter of deduction one of the key drivers of any economy is confidence, both among consumers and in business, about which it is far less easy to make inferences. This is not something new: back in the 1930s Joan Robinson famously discussed this under the heading of "animal spirits". Confidence can be boosted or reduced by factors which are obvious, and sometimes by factors which are not so obvious. It is not possible to make even the simplest of predictions about factors which are not obvious.
Back in the 1970s as an undergraduate at the University of Essex, I was taught that Macroeconomic prediction was quite simple when an economy was already on an upswing or downswing, but that it was impossible to make predictions about turning points: when an economy stops growing and enters recession, or when an economy stops receding and starts growing. That difficulty has recently been highlighted in the UK press with its interminable discussions on "double dip" and even "triple dip" recessions. Yet the data we need to determine where an economy lies in the business cycle lags well behind, making it difficult to know when (e.g.) an economy has turned the corner and come out of recession. To try and make predictions about such matters is akin to replicating King Canute: it can only end in tears. And, I would argue, it is not really the job of Economics to make such predictions. Those who argue they can accurately make such predictions are either charlatans or arrogant in their own judgment of their own skills and abilities.
It is time for Economists to take back our profession. If people desire predictions about the future they might well be better off turning to astrologers, tea-leaf readers and others of that ilk. That is not to say that Economics cannot offer predictions, but if they are true to the subject, they will remain slightly fuzzy and be used cautiously and with judgment.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Musings... a little something of the weekend
Is there a more enticing day of the week than Friday? I usually try to work from home on a Friday. The peace and quiet of having the place to myself for a few hours is a tonic. This week, of course, both of my kids are home on their half-term holidays, so I don't have the tonic.
Of course, Friday is a two-edged sword. It heralds the onset of the weekend, and especially the arrival of Shabbat (the day of rest) on Friday evening. That is truly something worth waiting for. But it also requires the house to be cleaned and all of the cooking done for Shabbat, which is something of a monumental task on its own, let along when I am also trying to tie up the week's loose ends of my workload. I should count my blessings that at least my kids help with some of the housework when they come in from school on Friday. Getting them to help when they've been home all week requires a lot more shouting!
Friday is also the day which heralds the football fixtures for the next few days. After a week or so of European fixtures—well done, Spurs, against Lyon... eventually—it will be good to get back to the bread and butter of the English Premier League. Although it seems like forever since I was last at White Hart Lane, at least Spurs have been on television, and Monday's fixture away to West Ham is no exception. I remain hopeful that Spurs will gain a much-needed three points, despite the possibility of a European hangover.
Although it is tempting to engage in analysis of the tactics and performance of Spurs against Lyon I will simply make one point: the gap left by the injury to Sandro is huge. An abyss. Scott Parker is an immense player, a footballer of some class, but still looks to be nowhere near his form of last season. Moussa Dembele is a player of undoubted potential, but for me lacks some personal confidence. His strong run last night which led to the goal is something I would like to see MUCH more of. But I wonder if the chemistry between Dembele and Parker is right? The central midfield pairing is crucial to the rest of the team, both attacking and defending, and also when trying to maintain possession. The Parker/Dembele combination lacks any real creative flair, and is not robust enough when defending. But with the spotlight firmly on Gareth Bale for his magnificent contributions to the team in recent weeks, and the critics roundly weighing in on Adebayor (whom I thought played much better last night: more active and more thoughtful in his running), this midfield issue may not have been fully noticed.
Still, it would be churlish to be overly critical of a Spurs team lying fourth in the EPL and into the last 16 of the Europa League. But when, like me, you have grown up and in your formative years lived with Spurs consistently in the top three and playing regularly against Europe's finest the perspective is different. So with this thought in mind I wish you all a splendid weekend, and to my Jewish relatives and friends I bid Shabbat shalom and chag Purim sameach.
Of course, Friday is a two-edged sword. It heralds the onset of the weekend, and especially the arrival of Shabbat (the day of rest) on Friday evening. That is truly something worth waiting for. But it also requires the house to be cleaned and all of the cooking done for Shabbat, which is something of a monumental task on its own, let along when I am also trying to tie up the week's loose ends of my workload. I should count my blessings that at least my kids help with some of the housework when they come in from school on Friday. Getting them to help when they've been home all week requires a lot more shouting!
Friday is also the day which heralds the football fixtures for the next few days. After a week or so of European fixtures—well done, Spurs, against Lyon... eventually—it will be good to get back to the bread and butter of the English Premier League. Although it seems like forever since I was last at White Hart Lane, at least Spurs have been on television, and Monday's fixture away to West Ham is no exception. I remain hopeful that Spurs will gain a much-needed three points, despite the possibility of a European hangover.
Although it is tempting to engage in analysis of the tactics and performance of Spurs against Lyon I will simply make one point: the gap left by the injury to Sandro is huge. An abyss. Scott Parker is an immense player, a footballer of some class, but still looks to be nowhere near his form of last season. Moussa Dembele is a player of undoubted potential, but for me lacks some personal confidence. His strong run last night which led to the goal is something I would like to see MUCH more of. But I wonder if the chemistry between Dembele and Parker is right? The central midfield pairing is crucial to the rest of the team, both attacking and defending, and also when trying to maintain possession. The Parker/Dembele combination lacks any real creative flair, and is not robust enough when defending. But with the spotlight firmly on Gareth Bale for his magnificent contributions to the team in recent weeks, and the critics roundly weighing in on Adebayor (whom I thought played much better last night: more active and more thoughtful in his running), this midfield issue may not have been fully noticed.
Still, it would be churlish to be overly critical of a Spurs team lying fourth in the EPL and into the last 16 of the Europa League. But when, like me, you have grown up and in your formative years lived with Spurs consistently in the top three and playing regularly against Europe's finest the perspective is different. So with this thought in mind I wish you all a splendid weekend, and to my Jewish relatives and friends I bid Shabbat shalom and chag Purim sameach.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
The work year...
For many people the new work year has already begun. For academics like myself it will begin in earnest on Monday week, when courses at my own University (www.richmond.ac.uk) recommence. However, a return to the routine of work starts tomorrow, with the usual slew of pre-semester meetings and correspondence. While I have enjoyed the past several weeks of relative peace and quiet, enabling me to engage in some productive reading and writing, I am also excited about the return to the classroom.
Although there is a great deal of satisfaction to be derived from reading and writing research papers and books, it does not have the same "buzz" that comes from meeting a new set of students for the first time as the new semester gets underway. Although there are bound to be a few students with whom I am already familiar, the chance to meet afresh some new, curious and inquiring minds offers a great deal of promise. With any luck the students will be good enough to fulfil their own promise, and also to ensure that the promise of new intellectual relationships bears enough fruit to fulfil that promise.
Of course, for students it may appear that the relationship with an instructor is entirely one-sided, with the passage of knowledge and skills to them from the instructor. But that is not the way I like to think of it; neither is it a view which I find healthy. I like to think that while I am able to educate my students by providing them with an introduction to certain formal skills, knowledge and techniques of analysis, equally I am able to learn a great deal from them. At the very least I am able to learn about the places from which they come, often countries with which I have little more than a passing knowledge. But each student is a fascinating individual, to whose talents and characteristics I need to tweak my methods of teaching. From them I take away changes to my own methods, and to how I relate to each and every one of them. I genuinely believe that the day I become blasé about my relationships with my students is the day I should retire or seek another professional challenge.
And then there is the real world. As an Associate Professor in Finance and Economics the real world provides the backdrop to everything I teach in the classroom. And the real world is never short of surprises and challenges for the professional in Finance and Economics. The real world influences both my teaching and, more directly perhaps, my research. For some months I have been working in a research paper dealing with the 'crisis' in the eurozone. But the changing background has made it difficult for me to write the last few concluding paragraphs. Every time I think I have written something which will stand up regardless of facts "on the ground", circumstances change and I am forced to rethink and rewrite. This is both frustrating and exciting; it is the vivacity of the real world with which professionals in my area are engaged. However, the existence of a looming deadline means that I will need to take a stance and no longer sit on the wall!
In recent years my first blog of the year has been one of looking forward to see what might happen in the new year. This year I am avoiding that perspective, largely because it is either a thankless task—the predictions are wholly wrong—or because the predictions themselves turn out to be trite and banal—the predictions are apparently true and seem obvious in hindsight. I hope you, dear reader, will continue to read my musings during 2013, and offer your own views by way of return.
Tuesday, January 08, 2013
Politicians: a thin line between love and hate?
Don't you just love politicians? It doesn't matter who we vote into office, it seems they just don't get it. They appear to have no idea about nor connection with the lives led by those who put them in office and pay their salaries. I don't know if this comes form mixing almost entirely with other politicians, and only coming into very limited contact with ordinary mortals when a photo-opportunity is required, or if there is some other factor at work. Despite this I do not wish politicians harm; in a democracy we will soon have an opportunity to vote this lot out and the other lot in at the next election, and we all have the right to stand ourselves for office if we don't like any of the alternatives on offer.
So, who is he referring to, I hear you ask yourself? The above could apply in any major democracy. I could be referring to yesterday's mid-term review of the UK's coalition government, or even the Obama administration in the USA. The same sentiments would apply equally to both, as well as the French, German and other governments currently in office. Politicians have a penchant for spewing out statistics which they think shows them and their policies in a good light, while ignoring the statistics thrown out by the other lot to show them in a bad light. Politicians are rarely able to give a straight, honest and direct answer to a simple question. But then, their primary objective is to get re-elected, so they perceive disingenuousness and obfuscation as the path of least resistance. Objective truth is seen as being hurtful to their objective. Or, more accurately, they don't think that we, the public, who vote for them and pay their salaries, can handle the truth.
It is was not yesterday's mid-term review by the UK coalition which has exercised me recently, but rather the European authorities. I am currently finishing up some research on the eurocrisis, with a particular focus on the eurozone. My main objective was to compare the eurozone with an Optimal Currency Area (OCA), its theoretical version. Or that's what it should be. In practice, the eurozone is as close to being an OCA as the Earth is to Proxima Centauri: a matter of some light years. That the eurozone as an institution needs some re-engineering is something that even the most ardent of eurocrats seems to recognise. But in reading the thoughts of Jörg Asmussen, Executive Board Member of the European Central Bank, in his "Agenda 2013 - the next steps in completing EMU", the profound distance between politicians and the general pubic became even more stark. Unlike our MPs and local councillors, we cannot elect someone else to replace too many of our European politicians.
Let me state for the record that I am a supporter of the European Project in principle. I do not wish to see the UK outside the EU. However, I have major issues with the current structure of the EU, which in my view has led to the misconstruction of the eurozone, and will prevent the latter from being rebuilt properly as an OCA. The biggest issue is that of accountability: the European Parliament does not properly function as a parliament. It is time to remove the Commissioners and rebuild Parliament as a a true representative body of the European peoples. Until this occurs it will not be possible to have a fiscal transfer mechanism (one of the requirements of an OCA), which would require cross-border EU taxation of some form or other. And there should be no taxation without representation, a concept so basic that it was first expressed nearly 250 years ago. Unless and until there is root-and-branch reform of the EU institutional setup there will be no serious and workable attempts to deal with the eurocrisis in our time. The Great Contraction could end up as the 21st century's Great Depression. A restructuring of the EU could prove the be the engine for growth that the world needs desperately, and make the EU more attractive to its detractors. Who knows? If they can manage to do this, maybe one day we will learn to love our politicians!
So, who is he referring to, I hear you ask yourself? The above could apply in any major democracy. I could be referring to yesterday's mid-term review of the UK's coalition government, or even the Obama administration in the USA. The same sentiments would apply equally to both, as well as the French, German and other governments currently in office. Politicians have a penchant for spewing out statistics which they think shows them and their policies in a good light, while ignoring the statistics thrown out by the other lot to show them in a bad light. Politicians are rarely able to give a straight, honest and direct answer to a simple question. But then, their primary objective is to get re-elected, so they perceive disingenuousness and obfuscation as the path of least resistance. Objective truth is seen as being hurtful to their objective. Or, more accurately, they don't think that we, the public, who vote for them and pay their salaries, can handle the truth.
It is was not yesterday's mid-term review by the UK coalition which has exercised me recently, but rather the European authorities. I am currently finishing up some research on the eurocrisis, with a particular focus on the eurozone. My main objective was to compare the eurozone with an Optimal Currency Area (OCA), its theoretical version. Or that's what it should be. In practice, the eurozone is as close to being an OCA as the Earth is to Proxima Centauri: a matter of some light years. That the eurozone as an institution needs some re-engineering is something that even the most ardent of eurocrats seems to recognise. But in reading the thoughts of Jörg Asmussen, Executive Board Member of the European Central Bank, in his "Agenda 2013 - the next steps in completing EMU", the profound distance between politicians and the general pubic became even more stark. Unlike our MPs and local councillors, we cannot elect someone else to replace too many of our European politicians.
Let me state for the record that I am a supporter of the European Project in principle. I do not wish to see the UK outside the EU. However, I have major issues with the current structure of the EU, which in my view has led to the misconstruction of the eurozone, and will prevent the latter from being rebuilt properly as an OCA. The biggest issue is that of accountability: the European Parliament does not properly function as a parliament. It is time to remove the Commissioners and rebuild Parliament as a a true representative body of the European peoples. Until this occurs it will not be possible to have a fiscal transfer mechanism (one of the requirements of an OCA), which would require cross-border EU taxation of some form or other. And there should be no taxation without representation, a concept so basic that it was first expressed nearly 250 years ago. Unless and until there is root-and-branch reform of the EU institutional setup there will be no serious and workable attempts to deal with the eurocrisis in our time. The Great Contraction could end up as the 21st century's Great Depression. A restructuring of the EU could prove the be the engine for growth that the world needs desperately, and make the EU more attractive to its detractors. Who knows? If they can manage to do this, maybe one day we will learn to love our politicians!
Friday, December 28, 2012
2013 here we come!
Next week sees the secular New Year. And with each impending arrival of the New Year comes a time for reflection. Television, radio and the newspapers will fill copy with a review of the major events of 2012. In the UK this will consist primarily of the Queen's Jubilee and the London 2012 Olympics, both rip-roaring successes. Both events lifted the mood of the nation at a time of economic austerity, and enabled the population to indulge in its own peculiar, understated form of nationalism, while celebrating Britishness and enjoying the sporting success of both the home nation and those from overseas.
My personal recollection of 2012 is, like so many other years, something of a mixed bag. The one key event which made this past year unlike any other was being diagnosed and treated for angina. While I have always known that I was not immortal, this was a stark reminder of my own mortality. Even before undergoing the angiogram and surgery in September I had made peace within myself so that had the worst happened I was entirely prepared mentally. Fortunately, nothing of the kind happened, and I have been on the road to recovery ever since. Recovering from cardiac surgery also meant that I had to review the manner in which I supported my beloved Tottenham Hotspur. It has meant learning to be less outwardly emotional, more sanguine about matches, and to accept that I am unable individually to change things on the pitch. I cannot tell you at this point in time whether or not this has contributed to me enjoying matches more or less, but hope it is the former.
I was very lucky in the past year to have made friends with two authors, who both gave me an appearance or two in their recent publications. I was more than fortunate to have become acquainted with the legendary sportswriter, the great Julie Welch, who came to interview me in the early days of 2012 for her book, Spurs: The Biography. A thirty-minute interview turned into a several hour recollection of common interests and passions, notably all Spurs-related. We have remained in contact since then, and I am glad to be able to call Julie my friend. Through Julie I was contacted by Anthony Clavane, and made an appearance in his Does Your Rabbi Know You're Here? I felt very lucky to be invited to the official launch of this book, which came at an auspicious personal time for me, and provided a tremendous boost to my recovery. I cannot recommend both books enough; they are an excellent addition to anyone's library of books about football. Julie's has interest beyond the Spurs' fan alone, while Anthony's serves as an excellent volume of social history centred on football.
2012 has also been notable for the eurocrisis, and the inevitable economic austerity measures which have taken place. While there may be an economic case to be made for tax rises and reductions in government spending, it is hard to escape the feeling that some members of the UK government take a special pleasure in watching the general population suffer. I remain hopeful that living in a democracy means that we, the general population, can enjoy a high degree of schadenfreude when they are dismissed from office at the next general election. Despite the economic gloom, the squeezed disposable incomes, the rising prices, and the unemployment, there seems to be something of an emotional climbing away from the abyss at present. The mood seems to be slowly lifting and I would not be at all surprised to find 2013 the year in which the UK economy begins a slow but steady climb away from the "great contraction", which began in 2007 with the financial (sub-prime) crisis in the USA. If the EU can come to grips with its structural issues it will help immensely, both within the eurozone, the EU and the wider global economy.
I am looking forward to 2013, and hoping that for me it is a year of improved health. I am also looking forward to being more productive in my academic output, and have already begun writing an Economics textbook for MBAs (I really must fill in the contract and send it back). I have a couple of other research projects on slow-burn in the background as well, and with a little luck and some commitment on my part my CV will continue to fill up. However, nothing is more important than family and my wife and I will celebrate 16 years of marriage on January 26th. It is hard for me to imagine what kind of madness prompted her to accept my marriage proposal in the first place, let alone put up with me for such a long time. But, whatever the cause I am decidedly grateful for the effect. It is impossible for me to imagine what life without her would have been like. Similarly for the output of the marriage, two (almost) teenage children of whom I am immensely proud! My son is a gem of a lad, with a passion for technology; my daughter is still finding her way in the world, and currently has ambition to become something of a MasterChef. But on the wedding anniversary of her parents, my daughter will become Bat Mitzvah at our local synagogue, and I feel sure my wife and I will both be glowing with immense pride that day. I can only hope that my heart does not burst with too much pride.
My other desire for 2013 is to see Spurs be more successful than in recent years. Yes, they have been improving and showing more consistency than heretofore, although coming fourth in the Premier League and yet being denied a Champions League slot still rankles as grossly unfair. My dream is to see Spurs win a trophy or two this season. While I hope we can achieve a Champions League placing (not least because of the extra cashflow it brings) history books list winners of trophies, and Spurs' history is primarily one of cup wins.
However your 2012 has been and whatever you wish for 2013, I wish you every health and happiness, and if my predictions are accurate, an improvement in your prosperity.
My personal recollection of 2012 is, like so many other years, something of a mixed bag. The one key event which made this past year unlike any other was being diagnosed and treated for angina. While I have always known that I was not immortal, this was a stark reminder of my own mortality. Even before undergoing the angiogram and surgery in September I had made peace within myself so that had the worst happened I was entirely prepared mentally. Fortunately, nothing of the kind happened, and I have been on the road to recovery ever since. Recovering from cardiac surgery also meant that I had to review the manner in which I supported my beloved Tottenham Hotspur. It has meant learning to be less outwardly emotional, more sanguine about matches, and to accept that I am unable individually to change things on the pitch. I cannot tell you at this point in time whether or not this has contributed to me enjoying matches more or less, but hope it is the former.
I was very lucky in the past year to have made friends with two authors, who both gave me an appearance or two in their recent publications. I was more than fortunate to have become acquainted with the legendary sportswriter, the great Julie Welch, who came to interview me in the early days of 2012 for her book, Spurs: The Biography. A thirty-minute interview turned into a several hour recollection of common interests and passions, notably all Spurs-related. We have remained in contact since then, and I am glad to be able to call Julie my friend. Through Julie I was contacted by Anthony Clavane, and made an appearance in his Does Your Rabbi Know You're Here? I felt very lucky to be invited to the official launch of this book, which came at an auspicious personal time for me, and provided a tremendous boost to my recovery. I cannot recommend both books enough; they are an excellent addition to anyone's library of books about football. Julie's has interest beyond the Spurs' fan alone, while Anthony's serves as an excellent volume of social history centred on football.
2012 has also been notable for the eurocrisis, and the inevitable economic austerity measures which have taken place. While there may be an economic case to be made for tax rises and reductions in government spending, it is hard to escape the feeling that some members of the UK government take a special pleasure in watching the general population suffer. I remain hopeful that living in a democracy means that we, the general population, can enjoy a high degree of schadenfreude when they are dismissed from office at the next general election. Despite the economic gloom, the squeezed disposable incomes, the rising prices, and the unemployment, there seems to be something of an emotional climbing away from the abyss at present. The mood seems to be slowly lifting and I would not be at all surprised to find 2013 the year in which the UK economy begins a slow but steady climb away from the "great contraction", which began in 2007 with the financial (sub-prime) crisis in the USA. If the EU can come to grips with its structural issues it will help immensely, both within the eurozone, the EU and the wider global economy.
I am looking forward to 2013, and hoping that for me it is a year of improved health. I am also looking forward to being more productive in my academic output, and have already begun writing an Economics textbook for MBAs (I really must fill in the contract and send it back). I have a couple of other research projects on slow-burn in the background as well, and with a little luck and some commitment on my part my CV will continue to fill up. However, nothing is more important than family and my wife and I will celebrate 16 years of marriage on January 26th. It is hard for me to imagine what kind of madness prompted her to accept my marriage proposal in the first place, let alone put up with me for such a long time. But, whatever the cause I am decidedly grateful for the effect. It is impossible for me to imagine what life without her would have been like. Similarly for the output of the marriage, two (almost) teenage children of whom I am immensely proud! My son is a gem of a lad, with a passion for technology; my daughter is still finding her way in the world, and currently has ambition to become something of a MasterChef. But on the wedding anniversary of her parents, my daughter will become Bat Mitzvah at our local synagogue, and I feel sure my wife and I will both be glowing with immense pride that day. I can only hope that my heart does not burst with too much pride.
My other desire for 2013 is to see Spurs be more successful than in recent years. Yes, they have been improving and showing more consistency than heretofore, although coming fourth in the Premier League and yet being denied a Champions League slot still rankles as grossly unfair. My dream is to see Spurs win a trophy or two this season. While I hope we can achieve a Champions League placing (not least because of the extra cashflow it brings) history books list winners of trophies, and Spurs' history is primarily one of cup wins.
However your 2012 has been and whatever you wish for 2013, I wish you every health and happiness, and if my predictions are accurate, an improvement in your prosperity.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Have a heart
In September of this year, some three months ago. I spent some time at the London Chest Hospital in Bethnal Green. For some months I had been having chest pains, which mainly occurred when walking and also when under stress, and they had been getting more severe and more painful with each passing week. A visit to my GP in early May led to a visit to my local "rapid access chest clinic", who diagnosed me with angina. Caused by blockages to the arteries, I was then referred to the London Chest Hospital for an angiogram to check out what seemed to be a minor case of angina. I was told I might need to have a stent (a small tube) inserted, but that such an operation alongside the angiogram would probably take no more than an hour, it being a non-invasive procedure.
So, on September 11th I showed up nice and early at the London Chest Hospital, a little on the nervous side, but also hungry and with rapidly declining blood sugar levels not having eaten since 5:30am that morning. I had been given to expect to be done and on my home around lunchtime, but should have know better.
The nurse who eventually received us (there were three of us awaiting cardiac surgery that morning) 45 minutes after we had been told to arrive informed us that there was an "emergency audit" of the labs (meaning operating theatres) and that operations would start around 12:30pm. Fortunately, there was a little food (dry cream crackers) in the waiting area, which helped my still rapidly reducing blood sugar levels. But at 12:30pm I was called to walk to the lab. Fully clothed I climbed onto the operating table, and was given diazepam to relax my muscles, so that they could insert the catheter into the arteries and undertake the angiogram. Unfortunately, the arteries in my arm were a bit less-than-linear, so they opted to not go via my wrist. Next thing I knew two very attractive young nurses were whipping off my trousers so they could go in via the groin artery! The angiogram makes use of a very dark dye which is pumped through the arterial system and shows up on an X-ray screen. It was clear that several of my arteries were clogged, and would require treatment of some kind.
The surgeon came to chat with me and told me that at least FOUR stents would be needed and that I might like to consider opting for a bypass operation which they could perform there and then. However, the combination of nerves and diazepam made me feel less than suitably equipped for making such a momentous decision. I was also given the option of leaving hospital and re-booking once I had decided which way to go: stents or bypass. This seemed like the worst of all possible worlds. So, armed with the information they gave me, I opted for the stents to be inserted.
At first it seemed quite a pleasant if boring experience, lying on a table, feeling very little going on inside me, with only the surgeon, nurses and other medical staff buzzing around chatting to each other in technical terms. The first three hours passed quite easily, but by the fourth I was starting to feel some internal pain, for which I received morphine. On the table for nearly four hours was quite an experience, and the final 15-30 minutes I found quite painful indeed. But it was soon over, and I was moved upstairs to the ward.
Because the operation had been lengthier and more complex than originally expected I was kept in overnight. Which meant I woke up on September 12th (my birthday) in the London Chest Hospital! After many chats with all manner of medical staff I was finally released in time to go home for a birthday tea with my family.
Recovery has been a long and arduous process, but I no longer feel the oppressive pain of angina. I still get odd tweaks and sensations in my chest cavity, but these might be the product of a fertile imagination. I have spent the last eight weeks undergoing cardiac rehab at home (well, mostly walking in the park and the streets) with regular calls from the cardiac nurse or physiotherapist. I had my last session with them yesterday, and was told I had made a 34% improvement over the eight weeks. I am still awaiting my final checkup with the surgeon, which should have been on 3 months, but with an ageing population I suspect calls for his services are pretty hectic. And I need to continue to learn to avoid stress, so try not to worry about such things too much.
I have received much support during this time from family and friends, including many friends whom I only know through online contact via social media. The support and encouragement of those who have also been through this experience has been invaluable to me, and helped me even when things seemed bleak. I have become much more aware of my own mortality, which does nothing to permit one to enjoy the good things in life without worry. I try to live each day as it comes in much the same way as I always did, but there remains this nagging doubt that the inevitable heart attack is just a matter of time. I have tried to take on board all of the advice I have been given with regard to diet (more fruit and veg, more oily fish) and exercise (30 minutes a day, 5 days a week minimum), and there is no doubt that this has helped my recovery. I don't know if private medical care would have been better, but I cannot fault the NHS for their care of me, for which I thank them from the bottom of my heart. The only remaining thing which would help me continue to recover all the quicker would be for Spurs to stop letting in late goals and throwing away points. A Premier League campaign which saw Spurs win the title, or a cup or two, would be just the tonic the doctor ordered!
So, on September 11th I showed up nice and early at the London Chest Hospital, a little on the nervous side, but also hungry and with rapidly declining blood sugar levels not having eaten since 5:30am that morning. I had been given to expect to be done and on my home around lunchtime, but should have know better.
The nurse who eventually received us (there were three of us awaiting cardiac surgery that morning) 45 minutes after we had been told to arrive informed us that there was an "emergency audit" of the labs (meaning operating theatres) and that operations would start around 12:30pm. Fortunately, there was a little food (dry cream crackers) in the waiting area, which helped my still rapidly reducing blood sugar levels. But at 12:30pm I was called to walk to the lab. Fully clothed I climbed onto the operating table, and was given diazepam to relax my muscles, so that they could insert the catheter into the arteries and undertake the angiogram. Unfortunately, the arteries in my arm were a bit less-than-linear, so they opted to not go via my wrist. Next thing I knew two very attractive young nurses were whipping off my trousers so they could go in via the groin artery! The angiogram makes use of a very dark dye which is pumped through the arterial system and shows up on an X-ray screen. It was clear that several of my arteries were clogged, and would require treatment of some kind.
The surgeon came to chat with me and told me that at least FOUR stents would be needed and that I might like to consider opting for a bypass operation which they could perform there and then. However, the combination of nerves and diazepam made me feel less than suitably equipped for making such a momentous decision. I was also given the option of leaving hospital and re-booking once I had decided which way to go: stents or bypass. This seemed like the worst of all possible worlds. So, armed with the information they gave me, I opted for the stents to be inserted.
At first it seemed quite a pleasant if boring experience, lying on a table, feeling very little going on inside me, with only the surgeon, nurses and other medical staff buzzing around chatting to each other in technical terms. The first three hours passed quite easily, but by the fourth I was starting to feel some internal pain, for which I received morphine. On the table for nearly four hours was quite an experience, and the final 15-30 minutes I found quite painful indeed. But it was soon over, and I was moved upstairs to the ward.
Because the operation had been lengthier and more complex than originally expected I was kept in overnight. Which meant I woke up on September 12th (my birthday) in the London Chest Hospital! After many chats with all manner of medical staff I was finally released in time to go home for a birthday tea with my family.
Recovery has been a long and arduous process, but I no longer feel the oppressive pain of angina. I still get odd tweaks and sensations in my chest cavity, but these might be the product of a fertile imagination. I have spent the last eight weeks undergoing cardiac rehab at home (well, mostly walking in the park and the streets) with regular calls from the cardiac nurse or physiotherapist. I had my last session with them yesterday, and was told I had made a 34% improvement over the eight weeks. I am still awaiting my final checkup with the surgeon, which should have been on 3 months, but with an ageing population I suspect calls for his services are pretty hectic. And I need to continue to learn to avoid stress, so try not to worry about such things too much.
I have received much support during this time from family and friends, including many friends whom I only know through online contact via social media. The support and encouragement of those who have also been through this experience has been invaluable to me, and helped me even when things seemed bleak. I have become much more aware of my own mortality, which does nothing to permit one to enjoy the good things in life without worry. I try to live each day as it comes in much the same way as I always did, but there remains this nagging doubt that the inevitable heart attack is just a matter of time. I have tried to take on board all of the advice I have been given with regard to diet (more fruit and veg, more oily fish) and exercise (30 minutes a day, 5 days a week minimum), and there is no doubt that this has helped my recovery. I don't know if private medical care would have been better, but I cannot fault the NHS for their care of me, for which I thank them from the bottom of my heart. The only remaining thing which would help me continue to recover all the quicker would be for Spurs to stop letting in late goals and throwing away points. A Premier League campaign which saw Spurs win the title, or a cup or two, would be just the tonic the doctor ordered!
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Stop being a Herbert, Peter!
Oh dear. I see that Peter Herbert is trying to raise his profile once again. Someone should tell this self-aggrandising self-important irrelevance that he needs to stop thinking he is David Baddiel and deal with the source of the racism (BTW I have been led to believe that anti-Semitism is considered separately from racism, as being Jewish does not constitute a race).
I would refer Herbert to John Efron's learned article on the usage of the term Yids by Spurs supporters, but doubt this would fit in with his attempts to raise his profile. However, let me state once again quite simply the following:
- I am a person of the Jewish faith, a member of the 12 tribes of Israel.
- I abhor totally and unequivocally any form of racism or anti-Semitism.
- If a gentile calls me a Yid then I am very likely to be offended (at the very least), as this is a term which has a long history of being abusive when applied to Jews, and has often been followed by physical oppression and violence.
- The use of the term by Spurs supporters began in the late 1970s as a response to anti-Semitic abuse from opposing fans, who (mistakenly) believe Spurs to be a Jewish football club.
- It has since been claimed as a badge of honour by Spurs fans, for whom many (especially the younger fans) it has become synonymous with supporting Spurs. Such younger fans typically have no knowledge of its origins as an anti-Semitic epithet. The same may also be increasingly said of younger fans of opposing teams.
Mr Herbert: if you are truly serious about removing racism and anti-Semitism from football then you should start by dealing with the large sections of clubs such as Chelsea which constantly barrack Spurs on the basis of our alleged Jewish connections. When they stop calling us "dirty Yids" and making gas chamber sounds, when they stop singing "Spurs areon their way to Auschwitz" I will happily then campaign for my fellow Spurs fans to stop applying the term Yids to ourselves.
I am delighted that Spurs themselves have seen fit to point this lawyer to the terms of the law itself, with which he seems to be not entirely familiar.
Ivan "DrHotspur" Cohen
Glad to be a Yid in every sense of the word.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Style is always in fashion
During the Summer months it has long been my custom to catch up on my reading. I have just finished re-reading Alison Weir's Eleanor of Aquitaine, which has given me a new perspective on early English history, and have just commenced re-reading John Hicks' Causality in Economics.
The story of Eleanor of Aquitaine provides strong clues to the beginnings of what we might refer to as the English national character. Set in the late 1100s, England is coming to terms with the Norman invasion which took place two generations earlier, and still has a strong connection to the lands which now make up France. Her second marriage to Henry II, and the story of two of Eleanor's sons, Richard I of England ("the Lionhearted") and John of England, have strong parallels with the later tale of Henry VIII. These are pivotal moments in the history of England, defining what was to become acceptable and unacceptable, via custom and precedent, and also via national institutions. The conflicts between European monarchs and the Pope (head of the Roman Catholic church) mirrors in some small way the current to-and-fro between individual EU nations and the EU in toto. It is also interesting to note that governments a millenium ago faced similar economic problems to those of today: mounting debt, difficulties in raising taxes, international trade problems, etc. Additionally, it is intriguing how much of the contemporary documents of Eleanor's time dwell on her looks and fashionable dress, as well as those of others, both men and women, but primarily women. In this respect Eleanor can be seen as the Kate Middleton of her day, although her convoluted love-life bears greater resemblance to the late mother-in-law of the Duchess of Cambridge! Eleanor of Aquitaine was a fashion icon and a model for future strong women striving to succeed in a male-dominated world.
John Hicks can accurately be described as one of the finest Economists of the 20th century. Less well-known than personalities such as John Maynard Keynes or Milton Friedman, his contributions to Economics span almost the entire field of study. He was partly responsible for the measurement of national economic well-being via GDP, and has contributed to major developments in monetary economics, finance, welfare economics and capital theory. However, in addition to these phenomenal contributions, in my mind John Hicks supersedes many of his contemporaries and those who followed because of the clarity of his expositions. Put simply, Hicks writes well. His style is no longer fashionable; academic expositions today lack the charm and grace which pervades Hicks' work. Despite often being technical, his writing style comes across much more as a conversation piece, or a narrative. It is almost chatty, and in that respect it is far more engaging than the dry, dull, insipid pieces which litter the plethora of academic journals of today. To write an academic article today which betrays any sense of character is guaranteed to ensure non-publication. Hicks is a writer with style; he writes the way Eleanor of Aquitaine dressed and deported herself almost a thousand years earlier.
I have also spent the past two weeks enjoying the European football championships (EURO 2012). As with dress and writing, football enjoys cycles of fashionability. This year's EUROs have seen a revival of passing football, with the better teams tending to enjoy significant percentages of possession. Last night's quarter-final encounter between England and Italy epitomised a clash of styles. The Italians, who are traditionally renowned for a defensive style of football (catenaccio) offered a freer-flowing, more attacking fluid style which was both pleasing on the eye and successful. By comparison, the English national team offered a stoic, ultra-defensive form of catenaccio, without any real flair or pace to counter-attack. It was a clash of styles, and it is football's good fortune that the more flowing style won out. Not just in last night's game, but throughout the tournament to-date. As a long-time Spurs' supporter I am an avid believer in the philosophy out forward by the late Danny Blanchflower:
"The great fallacy is that the game is first and last about winning. It’s nothing of the kind. The game is about glory. It is about doing things in style, with a flourish, about going out and beating the other lot, not waiting for them to die of boredom."
Style is timeless; fashion is something of its time. All human beings in their teens are subject to following the fashions of their time, whether it is in clothing, makeup, tattoos and piercings, manner of speech, hairstyle, and so on. It is therefore universal that when we look back to the way we look and acted in our teens we are so often aghast and, in some cases, ashamed. When we are young we are subject to fashion; as we grow older we find that style is much more important, and timeless. Eleanor of Aquitaine was a woman of style. The work of John Hicks possesses style. Football which is based on a fluid passing game has style. We should reject all else.
The story of Eleanor of Aquitaine provides strong clues to the beginnings of what we might refer to as the English national character. Set in the late 1100s, England is coming to terms with the Norman invasion which took place two generations earlier, and still has a strong connection to the lands which now make up France. Her second marriage to Henry II, and the story of two of Eleanor's sons, Richard I of England ("the Lionhearted") and John of England, have strong parallels with the later tale of Henry VIII. These are pivotal moments in the history of England, defining what was to become acceptable and unacceptable, via custom and precedent, and also via national institutions. The conflicts between European monarchs and the Pope (head of the Roman Catholic church) mirrors in some small way the current to-and-fro between individual EU nations and the EU in toto. It is also interesting to note that governments a millenium ago faced similar economic problems to those of today: mounting debt, difficulties in raising taxes, international trade problems, etc. Additionally, it is intriguing how much of the contemporary documents of Eleanor's time dwell on her looks and fashionable dress, as well as those of others, both men and women, but primarily women. In this respect Eleanor can be seen as the Kate Middleton of her day, although her convoluted love-life bears greater resemblance to the late mother-in-law of the Duchess of Cambridge! Eleanor of Aquitaine was a fashion icon and a model for future strong women striving to succeed in a male-dominated world.
John Hicks can accurately be described as one of the finest Economists of the 20th century. Less well-known than personalities such as John Maynard Keynes or Milton Friedman, his contributions to Economics span almost the entire field of study. He was partly responsible for the measurement of national economic well-being via GDP, and has contributed to major developments in monetary economics, finance, welfare economics and capital theory. However, in addition to these phenomenal contributions, in my mind John Hicks supersedes many of his contemporaries and those who followed because of the clarity of his expositions. Put simply, Hicks writes well. His style is no longer fashionable; academic expositions today lack the charm and grace which pervades Hicks' work. Despite often being technical, his writing style comes across much more as a conversation piece, or a narrative. It is almost chatty, and in that respect it is far more engaging than the dry, dull, insipid pieces which litter the plethora of academic journals of today. To write an academic article today which betrays any sense of character is guaranteed to ensure non-publication. Hicks is a writer with style; he writes the way Eleanor of Aquitaine dressed and deported herself almost a thousand years earlier.
I have also spent the past two weeks enjoying the European football championships (EURO 2012). As with dress and writing, football enjoys cycles of fashionability. This year's EUROs have seen a revival of passing football, with the better teams tending to enjoy significant percentages of possession. Last night's quarter-final encounter between England and Italy epitomised a clash of styles. The Italians, who are traditionally renowned for a defensive style of football (catenaccio) offered a freer-flowing, more attacking fluid style which was both pleasing on the eye and successful. By comparison, the English national team offered a stoic, ultra-defensive form of catenaccio, without any real flair or pace to counter-attack. It was a clash of styles, and it is football's good fortune that the more flowing style won out. Not just in last night's game, but throughout the tournament to-date. As a long-time Spurs' supporter I am an avid believer in the philosophy out forward by the late Danny Blanchflower:
"The great fallacy is that the game is first and last about winning. It’s nothing of the kind. The game is about glory. It is about doing things in style, with a flourish, about going out and beating the other lot, not waiting for them to die of boredom."
Style is timeless; fashion is something of its time. All human beings in their teens are subject to following the fashions of their time, whether it is in clothing, makeup, tattoos and piercings, manner of speech, hairstyle, and so on. It is therefore universal that when we look back to the way we look and acted in our teens we are so often aghast and, in some cases, ashamed. When we are young we are subject to fashion; as we grow older we find that style is much more important, and timeless. Eleanor of Aquitaine was a woman of style. The work of John Hicks possesses style. Football which is based on a fluid passing game has style. We should reject all else.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Tempus fugit: adapt or die.
There can be few places as full of interesting things to see and do as London. With its lengthy history, amazing plethora of buildings and museums, as well as a huge range of things to do—often for free—Samuel Johnson's adage ("when a man is tired of London, he is tired of life") remains even more true today as it was when he coined it.
For Father's Day (yesterday) my kids took me to see the Cutty Sark. One of the fastest tea clippers in its time, this ancient ship has seen much of "those twin imposters", Triumph and Disaster since it was built in 1869. Sailing between England and China, with stops in Australia, the Cutty Sark was widely regarded as a marvel of its time with a hull made from Muntz metal (a brass-like alloy, of 60% copper and 40% zinc). Although not the fastest of the tea clippers, the Cutty Sark was still able to sail from Shanghai to London in 110 days, with a cargo of 600,000 kilograms of tea; enough for more than 200 million cups!
In 1870 the Cutty Sark was one of 50 British sailing ships bringing tea back from China. Within seven years she was one of nine, as steamships and the opening of the Suez Canal (which was not passable by sailing ships) made the clippers less competitive. By 1883 her tea shipping voyages were over, but there was still life in the old girl as she turned to bringing wool from Australia to England until 1895, as well as other products from that far side of the world. In 1895 Cutty Sark was sold to a Lisbon-based company who rebranded her the Ferreira, playing her trade between Portugal and its African colonies and Brazil. However, by the end of World War I her days as a sea-going vessel were numbered, as the costs of maintaining her exceeded her ability to generate revenues.
A technological marvel in 1869 was essentially an anachronism within a few decades. Her competitive advantage having been eliminated by the constant flow of newer technologies.
This simple lesson was brought home to me further this past week. I watched Branagh's film version of Shakespeare's Henry V. The small band of Englishmen who defeated vastly superior numbers of French at Agincourt and Crecy were able to do so because they possessed superior technology in the form of the longbow. Yet again, within a few decades this superiority was eliminated as this technology was adopted by other nations, and ultimately by the invention of firearms.
Living in the 21st century with an almost-constant flow of technology, particularly in the form of smartphones, laptop computers and tablets such as the iPad, we ought to be more aware of the speed with which a product's competitive advantage can be eliminated. But because so much of today's technical change is evolutionary rather than revolutionary we remain more blasé and unaware. We know that next year there will be a new smartphone/laptop/tablet brought out, but there is little to distinguish it from its predecessor other than faster speed, brighter and better displays, and more applications which it can run. The wow! factor which accompanied the first personal computers has become diminished. The first iPad had a strong element of wow! as did the first iPod and iPhone, but with each successive generation that factor has been strongly reduced. It is only with some apparently entirely new product that wow! returns.
The morale of this tale is apparent: companies which do not continue to revolutionise their products will fall foul of the competition. Cutty Sark was able to continue its life beyond that of a tea clipper for several decades by shipping other products from the far side of the world back to England. Will we be able to find new uses for our older smartphones, laptops and iPads as they become obsolete with greater rapidity? Or do we lack that kind of ingenuity? Tempus fugit—time flies. Will we ever be able to keep pace with it, or must each generation fall by the wayside unable to compete with the next generation?
For Father's Day (yesterday) my kids took me to see the Cutty Sark. One of the fastest tea clippers in its time, this ancient ship has seen much of "those twin imposters", Triumph and Disaster since it was built in 1869. Sailing between England and China, with stops in Australia, the Cutty Sark was widely regarded as a marvel of its time with a hull made from Muntz metal (a brass-like alloy, of 60% copper and 40% zinc). Although not the fastest of the tea clippers, the Cutty Sark was still able to sail from Shanghai to London in 110 days, with a cargo of 600,000 kilograms of tea; enough for more than 200 million cups!
In 1870 the Cutty Sark was one of 50 British sailing ships bringing tea back from China. Within seven years she was one of nine, as steamships and the opening of the Suez Canal (which was not passable by sailing ships) made the clippers less competitive. By 1883 her tea shipping voyages were over, but there was still life in the old girl as she turned to bringing wool from Australia to England until 1895, as well as other products from that far side of the world. In 1895 Cutty Sark was sold to a Lisbon-based company who rebranded her the Ferreira, playing her trade between Portugal and its African colonies and Brazil. However, by the end of World War I her days as a sea-going vessel were numbered, as the costs of maintaining her exceeded her ability to generate revenues.
A technological marvel in 1869 was essentially an anachronism within a few decades. Her competitive advantage having been eliminated by the constant flow of newer technologies.
This simple lesson was brought home to me further this past week. I watched Branagh's film version of Shakespeare's Henry V. The small band of Englishmen who defeated vastly superior numbers of French at Agincourt and Crecy were able to do so because they possessed superior technology in the form of the longbow. Yet again, within a few decades this superiority was eliminated as this technology was adopted by other nations, and ultimately by the invention of firearms.
Living in the 21st century with an almost-constant flow of technology, particularly in the form of smartphones, laptop computers and tablets such as the iPad, we ought to be more aware of the speed with which a product's competitive advantage can be eliminated. But because so much of today's technical change is evolutionary rather than revolutionary we remain more blasé and unaware. We know that next year there will be a new smartphone/laptop/tablet brought out, but there is little to distinguish it from its predecessor other than faster speed, brighter and better displays, and more applications which it can run. The wow! factor which accompanied the first personal computers has become diminished. The first iPad had a strong element of wow! as did the first iPod and iPhone, but with each successive generation that factor has been strongly reduced. It is only with some apparently entirely new product that wow! returns.
The morale of this tale is apparent: companies which do not continue to revolutionise their products will fall foul of the competition. Cutty Sark was able to continue its life beyond that of a tea clipper for several decades by shipping other products from the far side of the world back to England. Will we be able to find new uses for our older smartphones, laptops and iPads as they become obsolete with greater rapidity? Or do we lack that kind of ingenuity? Tempus fugit—time flies. Will we ever be able to keep pace with it, or must each generation fall by the wayside unable to compete with the next generation?
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
The euro crisis lingers on
A crisis is a noun referring to:
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The current situation within the eurozone is certainly an example of the first definition, but it remains to be seen whether or not it ultimately becomes an example of the second. The main problem with any kind of crisis is that it may involve the taking of a difficult and important decision. Commentators at all levels have once again been focused on the "Greek question": should Greece remain in the eurozone, or would it be better of by leaving the European single currency, and reinstating its own national currency (the "new drachma" perhaps?!)?
Consequently the Greek government has a difficult and important decision to make. Should Greece opt to remain in the euro it will be subject to all of the strictures which are required in order for the single European currency to remain a viable pan-European currency. This means what the press are fond of referring to as "austerity" measures. In fact, what is required is for governments such as those in Greece to reduce their spending and possibly increase taxation. This is largely because such governments have been profligate in the past and spent so heavily that it required them to borrow large quantities of debt which are not sustainable. Were Greece an individual or company it would long ago have had to declare bankruptcy.
What is almost amusing for us in the UK is that Greeks are being asked to raise the age of retirement to 65 from 55. Such a move is one of a number which would swiftly reduce government spending, but is being staunchly opposed by the Greek population. In the UK the age of retirement has been raised to 67, and is likely to go even higher over the next few decades. But there is a recognition here that the original age of retirement in the UK (60 for women, 65 for men) was based on a significantly reduced lifespan than is now the case. As people live longer it becomes less affordable for a Pay-As-You-Go (or intergenerational transfer) system to exist without significant change. For reasons best known to themselves, the Greeks are unwilling to recognise this fact.
But State pensions are not the only government expenditure which the Greeks need to reduce. And any reduction in State spending is bound to have detrimental effects on different sectors of the economy. In the case of Greece it can be argued that the "cuts" have been poorly handled, both in terms of the way they have been sold to the population, and also in terms of whom they hit the hardest; it seems to be the case in Greece that they have fallen with the biggest burden on those who can least afford to deal with their impact.
So what is to happen in Greece? The recent elections in Greece failed to produce a working government; none of the major parties seemed willing or able enough to compromise and form a coalition with any of the other parties. Greece no long has a working democratic government, but a caretaker government which is largely unable to make any major decisions. The next general election will be in June 2012, barely a month after those in May which proved indecisive. There remains a significantly high probability that these will yield similar results as in May, leaving the Greek decision on its position in the eurozone in limbo for the foreseeable future. At a time when many are expecting to take such an important decision for its own identity and economic and political future there is not a government in place to take such an important decision. And therein lies the real Greek tragedy.
It is my considered view that while there may be short-term gains from a Greek withdrawal from the euro, the long-term costs to Greece would be at least as significant as their currently unsustainable debt. It is all too easy seeing Greece go down the path of default previously experienced by countries such as Argentina, and the move towards a more extremist divisive politics which that often entails. With increasing trends towards coalition government in many countries there are important political lessons to be learned from the Greek experience. While I am not in favour of the straitjacket of balanced budget laws, governments need to find a way to borrow more sustainably in future. Reliance on the financial markets to provide discipline will not work if the markets themselves are not properly regulated, and lenders feel themselves to be well-insured on a "too big to fail" basis. The key problem is one of moral hazard, a form of market failure all too well-known to textbook writers but not to the regulators of financial markets and institutions.
It is therefore of crucial importance that as governments try to bring their finances under control, they do so in a manner which does not jeopardise the well-being of the populations they are meant to represent; even though it may involve costs, it is important those costs fall on those who can best bear them. However, without a well-thought plan to improve the regulation of the financial system on a global basis (rather than a knee-jerk reaction to the contemporary) we will see a similar situation arise again within the next 20-25 years, when the lessons of this crisis have become history. And we know what happens to those who forget the lessons of history ...
Monday, January 02, 2012
Happy new year?
As the New Year celebrations and fireworks fade slowly into the mists of memory the year 2012 looms ahead as an empty canvas awaiting the painter's brush. "What lies ahead?" is the question which so many of us ask at this time, as if the future is already established, and we only need to wait and see if what we hope it promises will be fulfilled. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth.
The future is something we ourselves have to write, not sit back and wait to read. It is up to us to ensure we fulfil our own destinies, to fulfil our potentials to the best of our abilities, and not to assume that the future is "written in the stars". With freedom of will comes responsibility. We may not be able to fully determine our own circumstances by our own actions, but we can surely achieve 'failure' by our own inaction.
The New Year is little more than an arbitrary break in the calendar. There is no rationale by which the change from December 31st to January 1st should indicate any major changes in our lives. It is no different from the move from (e.g.) September 15th to September 16th. However, the change of calendar year combined with the time away from work, often spent in the company of good friends and family, affords us the opportunity for self-reflection. Such an opportunity permits us to consider what we might have done differently or better in the past, and to learn how to approach things differently in future. But it is a matter of personal willpower whether or not one succeeds in becoming a "better person" this year.
This applies both in the small—at the personal level—and in the large—such as in business and politics, for example. While us ordinary mortals try to make minor adjustments to fulfil our potential we hope that our business leaders and politicians will do likewise, especially as we have just come out of a year with so many pessimistic circumstances. The holiday period has seen a respite from news reports on the euro-crisis or wars and revolutions in the Middle East and elsewhere, but these will resume as we wend our weary way back to work in the next few days. I hope that politicians can stick to their resolve and make (at least) minor improvements in the lives of those who elected them and beyond. It is my fervent hope that EU politicians can resolve their petty nationalistic differences and pull together in the interests of ALL of Europe.
However, my most fervent hope for 2102 (beyond what I hope for my family) is to see my beloved Spurs continue in the rich vein of form which has lifted them to third in the Premier League. Who knows? Perhaps we might even win the title this year!?!
Wishing you all that is best for 2012, although I know it is entirely in your own hands.
The future is something we ourselves have to write, not sit back and wait to read. It is up to us to ensure we fulfil our own destinies, to fulfil our potentials to the best of our abilities, and not to assume that the future is "written in the stars". With freedom of will comes responsibility. We may not be able to fully determine our own circumstances by our own actions, but we can surely achieve 'failure' by our own inaction.
The New Year is little more than an arbitrary break in the calendar. There is no rationale by which the change from December 31st to January 1st should indicate any major changes in our lives. It is no different from the move from (e.g.) September 15th to September 16th. However, the change of calendar year combined with the time away from work, often spent in the company of good friends and family, affords us the opportunity for self-reflection. Such an opportunity permits us to consider what we might have done differently or better in the past, and to learn how to approach things differently in future. But it is a matter of personal willpower whether or not one succeeds in becoming a "better person" this year.
This applies both in the small—at the personal level—and in the large—such as in business and politics, for example. While us ordinary mortals try to make minor adjustments to fulfil our potential we hope that our business leaders and politicians will do likewise, especially as we have just come out of a year with so many pessimistic circumstances. The holiday period has seen a respite from news reports on the euro-crisis or wars and revolutions in the Middle East and elsewhere, but these will resume as we wend our weary way back to work in the next few days. I hope that politicians can stick to their resolve and make (at least) minor improvements in the lives of those who elected them and beyond. It is my fervent hope that EU politicians can resolve their petty nationalistic differences and pull together in the interests of ALL of Europe.
However, my most fervent hope for 2102 (beyond what I hope for my family) is to see my beloved Spurs continue in the rich vein of form which has lifted them to third in the Premier League. Who knows? Perhaps we might even win the title this year!?!
Wishing you all that is best for 2012, although I know it is entirely in your own hands.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Banks, bankers and pension funds
Whenever there is a recession it is customary to seek out a scapegoat, although a modern economy is far too complex and sophisticated for it to be the fault of any single group. Currently the scapegoat appears to be "bankers", although that phrase is employed without thought for what it actually means. In one sees a banker can be almost anyone who works for a bank, including the teller who takes your deposits over the counter, and enables you to withdraw money through human interaction rather than via the more impersonal (but convenient) ATM. However, no-one is blaming bank tellers for the current state of the economy; rather it is the bankers at the top of the banking tree who are to blame. The recession, largely off the back of the financial crisis which began in the USA in 2007, is the fault of excessive risks taken by those on the Boards of Directors of banks. Now, I am not entirely sure where the line is between an "excessive" risk and an "acceptable" risk; the presumption in the rhetoric seems to be that the latter are those which succeed, while the former are those which do not, which is logically absurd.
That bankers are neither inherently good nor evil seems to me to be obvious. That some bankers have been provided with bonuses of which they are entirely undeserving is a matter of fact (the finger points squarely at Sir Fred Goodwin). That this requires change is self-evident. However, not all bankers are Sir Fred Goodwin. Investments, both financial (as made by banks and other financial institutions) and real do not always prove to be profitable. However, I would argue that there is no need for additional regulation of banking per se. Perhaps regulation of the conditions under which bonuses can be paid (superior performance comes to mind!) can be justified, but this ought to apply to all industries, not just banking. But this is largely a question of governance, not of banking itself. And good governance of any company comes via its shareholders, not solely from outside bodies. Good regulation comes from thoughtful consideration of the issues in the long-term, not from a knee-jerk reaction to current populism (of which politicians are all too fond). And who are the major shareholders of most UK listed corporations, including banks? This would be the UK pension funds, who for too long have been largely passive investors in their shareholdings.
For many years I have been arguing the case for a change in the governance of UK pension funds. As things stand, contributors to pensions and pensioners have little incentive to worry about the make-up of the trustees of their scheme. Most trusts are made of representatives of the employer and the union which represents the bulk of employees. In the USA things are more democratic: all contributors have the right to elect the trustees of their scheme, with a selection of candidates and their biographies being sent out at the time of election. The biographies include those characteristics which are likely to make a candidate seem attractive and talented to become a pension fund trustee. If such a system of electing trustees were imported into UK pension funds there would be a sea change in the governance of these mighty financial institutions.
Assuming trustees were elected to serve a number of years (rather than one, which could lead to short-termism), they would be much more directly accountable to pension contributors than is currently the case. This does not mean that such trustees would do the bidding of those who elected them; one would hope they would due able to take a more dispassionate, objective view of investment strategy! However, current trustees are largely anonymous and likely to act in the interests of the small groups from which they have come, rather than pensioners and contributors, whereas democratically-elected trustees would need to be closer to understanding and incorporating the views of those they represent. One major change this is likely to lead to is increased "shareholder activism" on the part of pension funds. If this were the case, pension funds would be taking a stronger view on how banks were being run, including the way in which bonuses were paid. Indeed, pension funds would require greater detail on bank financial strategy which would make the banks significantly more accountable to their shareholders, and hence to the general public (most of whom are pension fund contributors or pensioners.
In the mid-1970s (1976) the management guru Peter Drucker wrote an oft-overlooked book, The Unseen Revolution: How Pension Fund Socialism Came to America. If the governance of pension funds were altered as I have argued above (and elsewhere) it would lead to improved governance of banks (and other corporations) eliminating the kind of rhetoric which leads to all bankers being scapegoats for the current recession.
That bankers are neither inherently good nor evil seems to me to be obvious. That some bankers have been provided with bonuses of which they are entirely undeserving is a matter of fact (the finger points squarely at Sir Fred Goodwin). That this requires change is self-evident. However, not all bankers are Sir Fred Goodwin. Investments, both financial (as made by banks and other financial institutions) and real do not always prove to be profitable. However, I would argue that there is no need for additional regulation of banking per se. Perhaps regulation of the conditions under which bonuses can be paid (superior performance comes to mind!) can be justified, but this ought to apply to all industries, not just banking. But this is largely a question of governance, not of banking itself. And good governance of any company comes via its shareholders, not solely from outside bodies. Good regulation comes from thoughtful consideration of the issues in the long-term, not from a knee-jerk reaction to current populism (of which politicians are all too fond). And who are the major shareholders of most UK listed corporations, including banks? This would be the UK pension funds, who for too long have been largely passive investors in their shareholdings.
For many years I have been arguing the case for a change in the governance of UK pension funds. As things stand, contributors to pensions and pensioners have little incentive to worry about the make-up of the trustees of their scheme. Most trusts are made of representatives of the employer and the union which represents the bulk of employees. In the USA things are more democratic: all contributors have the right to elect the trustees of their scheme, with a selection of candidates and their biographies being sent out at the time of election. The biographies include those characteristics which are likely to make a candidate seem attractive and talented to become a pension fund trustee. If such a system of electing trustees were imported into UK pension funds there would be a sea change in the governance of these mighty financial institutions.
Assuming trustees were elected to serve a number of years (rather than one, which could lead to short-termism), they would be much more directly accountable to pension contributors than is currently the case. This does not mean that such trustees would do the bidding of those who elected them; one would hope they would due able to take a more dispassionate, objective view of investment strategy! However, current trustees are largely anonymous and likely to act in the interests of the small groups from which they have come, rather than pensioners and contributors, whereas democratically-elected trustees would need to be closer to understanding and incorporating the views of those they represent. One major change this is likely to lead to is increased "shareholder activism" on the part of pension funds. If this were the case, pension funds would be taking a stronger view on how banks were being run, including the way in which bonuses were paid. Indeed, pension funds would require greater detail on bank financial strategy which would make the banks significantly more accountable to their shareholders, and hence to the general public (most of whom are pension fund contributors or pensioners.
In the mid-1970s (1976) the management guru Peter Drucker wrote an oft-overlooked book, The Unseen Revolution: How Pension Fund Socialism Came to America. If the governance of pension funds were altered as I have argued above (and elsewhere) it would lead to improved governance of banks (and other corporations) eliminating the kind of rhetoric which leads to all bankers being scapegoats for the current recession.
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Adrift on a sea of ignorant bliss?
A large passenger cruise liner has been at sea for some weeks, the passengers enjoying the sun, sea, good food and camaraderie aboard. Then, one day, the engines cease working and a small hole is discovered in the hold. Water is trickling in, slowly at first but faster with each passing day. But the ship remains listless at sea, adrift hundreds of miles from the nearest shores.
At first no-one feels it right to inform the passengers. The captain sets crews to work on plugging the ever-increasing hole in the hold and on trying to restart the engines. Neither works, so the captain sacks the workers. If the engines are not working there is no need to employ and pay those who would normally be running the ship nor the engineers who maintain the engines. And there are nowhere near enough lifeboats to save even a small minority aboard, even assuming those lifeboats could make it the hundreds of miles to land.
At this point an SOS radio message is sent out requesting help. But the response is slow. After all, the messages from shore come back, if you got yourself into this mess you should get yourself out of it. But food is running low, and with no engines the tropical heat is becoming unbearable without air conditioning. The passengers start to become restless and want to know what is happening. When they find out that this situation has been going on for some time they become hostile and aggravated. Food is on low rations (except for the captain and his immediate crew, of course). So further SOS calls are made.
Eventually the captain is informed that a small emergency flotilla has been established, and will be leaving shortly to help make emergency repairs to the cruise liner, and bring food and fuel and other supplies for the crew and passengers.All seems to be improving on board the ship, although water continues to flood into the hold at an ever-increasing rate. The ship is already listing heavily to one side.
The captain responds to the call from shore, telling them to not yet send the emergency aid. He first needs to organise a vote and see if the flotilla is acceptable to the passengers and crew. The captain advises the rescue team he will send them the result of the vote in a week or so.
Obviously, the scenario above is patently absurd, yet it mirrors the tragedy unfurling daily with the Greek economy. The Greek government is barely able to pay its debts; it has permitted its citizens to enjoy the luxury of their sunbeds in ignorance of the truth for too long. After a great deal of faffing around, eventually the other countries of the eurozone, led by France and Germany, organise a rescue package. Just when things are starting to look better, the Greek PM insists on putting the rescue package to his Parliament and also to a referendum of the people. Absurd! When political and economic leadership is called for in Greece, there is the cowardice of the pretence of democracy. All the while the problems of the Greek economy are having ripple effects felt, first in neighbouring European countries, and also in the rest of the world. While Athens sinks in the mire, Papandreou continues with his fiddling about, failing to take the important decisions for which leaders are usually elected.
The natural reaction to all this is to put out of joint the noses of those who had laboured long and hard to agree a rescue package. This may also have taken too long, but for Greece to run round and bite that hand that would enable it to continue to feeds its citizens smacks too much of cutting off one's one nose to spite one's face. If it is a matter of pride, the Papandreou needs to be reminded that pride comes before a fall. Rarely before in the field of human conduct has there been so much foolishness from those who ought to know better in such a short space of time.
At the time of writing it is hard to predict whether or not Greece will continue to remain a member country of the eurozone (the European single currency). The odds seem stacked against. But with or without Greece the euro will plod on a Europe's single currency. Should Greece decide to exit the eurozone its ability to raise funds on the world's capital markets will become severely compromised, leading to likely default on many Greek borrowings around the world. The near future of the world, and its possible medium-term destiny has been compromised by the inadequate leadership of one man: Papandreou. He will join the pantheon of ancient Greeks, known not for their heroism, but for their tragic qualities.
At first no-one feels it right to inform the passengers. The captain sets crews to work on plugging the ever-increasing hole in the hold and on trying to restart the engines. Neither works, so the captain sacks the workers. If the engines are not working there is no need to employ and pay those who would normally be running the ship nor the engineers who maintain the engines. And there are nowhere near enough lifeboats to save even a small minority aboard, even assuming those lifeboats could make it the hundreds of miles to land.
At this point an SOS radio message is sent out requesting help. But the response is slow. After all, the messages from shore come back, if you got yourself into this mess you should get yourself out of it. But food is running low, and with no engines the tropical heat is becoming unbearable without air conditioning. The passengers start to become restless and want to know what is happening. When they find out that this situation has been going on for some time they become hostile and aggravated. Food is on low rations (except for the captain and his immediate crew, of course). So further SOS calls are made.
Eventually the captain is informed that a small emergency flotilla has been established, and will be leaving shortly to help make emergency repairs to the cruise liner, and bring food and fuel and other supplies for the crew and passengers.All seems to be improving on board the ship, although water continues to flood into the hold at an ever-increasing rate. The ship is already listing heavily to one side.
The captain responds to the call from shore, telling them to not yet send the emergency aid. He first needs to organise a vote and see if the flotilla is acceptable to the passengers and crew. The captain advises the rescue team he will send them the result of the vote in a week or so.
Obviously, the scenario above is patently absurd, yet it mirrors the tragedy unfurling daily with the Greek economy. The Greek government is barely able to pay its debts; it has permitted its citizens to enjoy the luxury of their sunbeds in ignorance of the truth for too long. After a great deal of faffing around, eventually the other countries of the eurozone, led by France and Germany, organise a rescue package. Just when things are starting to look better, the Greek PM insists on putting the rescue package to his Parliament and also to a referendum of the people. Absurd! When political and economic leadership is called for in Greece, there is the cowardice of the pretence of democracy. All the while the problems of the Greek economy are having ripple effects felt, first in neighbouring European countries, and also in the rest of the world. While Athens sinks in the mire, Papandreou continues with his fiddling about, failing to take the important decisions for which leaders are usually elected.
The natural reaction to all this is to put out of joint the noses of those who had laboured long and hard to agree a rescue package. This may also have taken too long, but for Greece to run round and bite that hand that would enable it to continue to feeds its citizens smacks too much of cutting off one's one nose to spite one's face. If it is a matter of pride, the Papandreou needs to be reminded that pride comes before a fall. Rarely before in the field of human conduct has there been so much foolishness from those who ought to know better in such a short space of time.
At the time of writing it is hard to predict whether or not Greece will continue to remain a member country of the eurozone (the European single currency). The odds seem stacked against. But with or without Greece the euro will plod on a Europe's single currency. Should Greece decide to exit the eurozone its ability to raise funds on the world's capital markets will become severely compromised, leading to likely default on many Greek borrowings around the world. The near future of the world, and its possible medium-term destiny has been compromised by the inadequate leadership of one man: Papandreou. He will join the pantheon of ancient Greeks, known not for their heroism, but for their tragic qualities.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
New year, new start
When I was a young child I thought it a bit peculiar that the school year started in September, while the calendar year—which I considered to be the year proper—began on January 1st. Surely the school year should coincide with the calendar year?
This confusion was originally made all the worse when I was told by my teachers at cheder (Jewish studies classes held after-school in another place) that there were four new years: the Jewish calendar new year of Rosh Hashana (typically in September of October), a Jewish "new year" for trees (Tu b'Shvat, around February or so), the birthday of the Universe (1st Nissan, sometime in Spring), and the secular or calendar new year. But with a year or so of thought it made sense that the school year coincided with the Jewish new year.
This year the Jewish new year is quite late on the secular calendar, the last week in September. Yet next week my University starts back, and my youngest daughter begins are her new secondary school. My son, who is a little older, starts back the following Monday. And so, as this week ends a new school year is about to start, some two weeks after the start of the English Premier League! Summer—which has never really made much of an appearance in London—is now officially over: the new year is starting with a vengeance.
Under normal circumstances going back to work or school after Summer is something of a two-edged sword. On the downside there is the prospect of obligations being enforced, while the upside is a chance to renew friendships and start over with something approaching a clean slate. As a schoolboy, I used to pledge not to deface my textbooks each new school year, a pledge that I was never able to keep (I still possess most of my school books!). As an adult who is a University lecturer, I usually approach each new year with renewed vigour and energy. I am usually excited and energised at the prospect of meeting a new group of students and, in some cases, becoming reacquainted with students with whom I already have an established relationship. However, for personal reasons this has been a dire Summer, full of traumas and disappointments—the least of these being the poor weather—so I am less motivated than is normally the case as we rush headlong towards September.
It would be an exaggeration to say that I am indifferent to the start of the new academic year, and I remain hopeful that reconnecting with colleagues and students will invigorate me. I hope that Spurs' early season performances will have a similar impact (although the 3-0 loss to ManU had the reverse effect). And despite my personal circumstances the world itself has given us plenty to talk about this Summer: as well as the "Arab Spring" and the continuing battles for democracy in the Arab world, there is the ongoing financial "crisis" and the continued prospect of a double dip recession. And with today's news that Steve Jobs no longer feels his health permits his continued full-time efforts at Apple, the world continues to astound and amaze, surprise and delight, and confound and confuse, all in equal measure.
Whatever, your role, your job, your circumstances, I hope we all enjoy the new start that comes with a new year, and the end of Summer is always a new year!
This confusion was originally made all the worse when I was told by my teachers at cheder (Jewish studies classes held after-school in another place) that there were four new years: the Jewish calendar new year of Rosh Hashana (typically in September of October), a Jewish "new year" for trees (Tu b'Shvat, around February or so), the birthday of the Universe (1st Nissan, sometime in Spring), and the secular or calendar new year. But with a year or so of thought it made sense that the school year coincided with the Jewish new year.
This year the Jewish new year is quite late on the secular calendar, the last week in September. Yet next week my University starts back, and my youngest daughter begins are her new secondary school. My son, who is a little older, starts back the following Monday. And so, as this week ends a new school year is about to start, some two weeks after the start of the English Premier League! Summer—which has never really made much of an appearance in London—is now officially over: the new year is starting with a vengeance.
Under normal circumstances going back to work or school after Summer is something of a two-edged sword. On the downside there is the prospect of obligations being enforced, while the upside is a chance to renew friendships and start over with something approaching a clean slate. As a schoolboy, I used to pledge not to deface my textbooks each new school year, a pledge that I was never able to keep (I still possess most of my school books!). As an adult who is a University lecturer, I usually approach each new year with renewed vigour and energy. I am usually excited and energised at the prospect of meeting a new group of students and, in some cases, becoming reacquainted with students with whom I already have an established relationship. However, for personal reasons this has been a dire Summer, full of traumas and disappointments—the least of these being the poor weather—so I am less motivated than is normally the case as we rush headlong towards September.
It would be an exaggeration to say that I am indifferent to the start of the new academic year, and I remain hopeful that reconnecting with colleagues and students will invigorate me. I hope that Spurs' early season performances will have a similar impact (although the 3-0 loss to ManU had the reverse effect). And despite my personal circumstances the world itself has given us plenty to talk about this Summer: as well as the "Arab Spring" and the continuing battles for democracy in the Arab world, there is the ongoing financial "crisis" and the continued prospect of a double dip recession. And with today's news that Steve Jobs no longer feels his health permits his continued full-time efforts at Apple, the world continues to astound and amaze, surprise and delight, and confound and confuse, all in equal measure.
Whatever, your role, your job, your circumstances, I hope we all enjoy the new start that comes with a new year, and the end of Summer is always a new year!
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
American angst
The debt problems currently plaguing the US government are showing that country's politicians at their angst-ridden and undignified worst. The world's largest democracy, and one which holds itself up as a model for other countries, is proving to be less than worthy. Were it possible it would be an invitation to bring many high-profile US politicians to account for bringing democracy into disrepute.
The cause of this undignified mess is, of course, the debt problems facing the Federal government. Unseemly arguments between the President, the Senate and the House of Representatives are doing little to deal with this financial time-bomb, likely to go off before the week is out. If ever there was a time to put partisan politics to one side and do right by the ordinary people the politicians are supposed to represent, this is it. However, US politics is not driven by rights and wrongs, but by fierce brand loyalty down the generations to one party or another. On that score we could perhaps blame the electorate: in a democracy you get the politicians you deserve! However, one would hope that politicians would show some evidence of leadership, to go beyond simple representation of the citizenship. A forlorn hope indeed.
So what is the cause of this political in-fighting? In simple terms the US Federal government has borrowed beyond its means. For ordinary people, firms, and smaller countries, borrowing beyond one's ability to repay can be fatal, both financially and otherwise. However, as the late J Paul Getty once noted, "If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." The US Federal government debt is of the order of $14 trillion. Whether or not that is a large amount is entirely dependent on the ability of the borrower to repay.
It is often the case that the amounts borrowed during "good" times are apparently easily serviceable. However, the problem arises when the times are no longer "good", and it becomes more difficult to repay the interest, let alone any capital repayments. This is something which has affected almost every government on the planet, most noticeably Greece and Eire. Now it is the turn of the US to deal with what is seemingly a no-longer serviceable debt. And the politicians are unable to agree on the details of how best to deal with the situation. The simple solutions amount to a few elements: (1) reduce government spending making more funds available to reduce the burden of debt over the next few years; (2) increase the taxation levels to help fund the debt; (3) some combination of both. The Republicans favour 1, the Democrats 2, and the President is arguing for 3. The closeness of the deadline suggest that only 3 will serve, yet the two main parties continue to quibble over the details. It is the modern equivalent of fiddling while Rome (in this case Washington DC) burns.
If Greece defaulted on its debt then it would find it more difficult to borrow in future. It would be regarded as a risky proposition. Its bond ratings would plummet, leading to higher interest rates on any future loans it might be able to organise. Modern history has shown this with Mexico and Argentina. However, the USA is on a different scale. Any default could be seen as possibly temporary—the result of the immaturity of bickering US politicians—or it could be seen as much more dangerous. A default by the US Federal government could lead to an implosion of the world's financial markets. The collapse which was narrowly avoided when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt could once again become a reality, a reality which no rational person wishes to contemplate. Financial economists refer to this as systemic risk: the possibility of the collapse of the financial system. For ordinary people it means the end of the world as we know it. No credit, a failed banking system, markets which seize up, etc etc.
All we can do is hope the US politicians will come to their sense before the eleventh hour. Only time will tell if sense will prevail, or if we really do stand on the edge of a financial precipice.
The cause of this undignified mess is, of course, the debt problems facing the Federal government. Unseemly arguments between the President, the Senate and the House of Representatives are doing little to deal with this financial time-bomb, likely to go off before the week is out. If ever there was a time to put partisan politics to one side and do right by the ordinary people the politicians are supposed to represent, this is it. However, US politics is not driven by rights and wrongs, but by fierce brand loyalty down the generations to one party or another. On that score we could perhaps blame the electorate: in a democracy you get the politicians you deserve! However, one would hope that politicians would show some evidence of leadership, to go beyond simple representation of the citizenship. A forlorn hope indeed.
So what is the cause of this political in-fighting? In simple terms the US Federal government has borrowed beyond its means. For ordinary people, firms, and smaller countries, borrowing beyond one's ability to repay can be fatal, both financially and otherwise. However, as the late J Paul Getty once noted, "If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." The US Federal government debt is of the order of $14 trillion. Whether or not that is a large amount is entirely dependent on the ability of the borrower to repay.
It is often the case that the amounts borrowed during "good" times are apparently easily serviceable. However, the problem arises when the times are no longer "good", and it becomes more difficult to repay the interest, let alone any capital repayments. This is something which has affected almost every government on the planet, most noticeably Greece and Eire. Now it is the turn of the US to deal with what is seemingly a no-longer serviceable debt. And the politicians are unable to agree on the details of how best to deal with the situation. The simple solutions amount to a few elements: (1) reduce government spending making more funds available to reduce the burden of debt over the next few years; (2) increase the taxation levels to help fund the debt; (3) some combination of both. The Republicans favour 1, the Democrats 2, and the President is arguing for 3. The closeness of the deadline suggest that only 3 will serve, yet the two main parties continue to quibble over the details. It is the modern equivalent of fiddling while Rome (in this case Washington DC) burns.
If Greece defaulted on its debt then it would find it more difficult to borrow in future. It would be regarded as a risky proposition. Its bond ratings would plummet, leading to higher interest rates on any future loans it might be able to organise. Modern history has shown this with Mexico and Argentina. However, the USA is on a different scale. Any default could be seen as possibly temporary—the result of the immaturity of bickering US politicians—or it could be seen as much more dangerous. A default by the US Federal government could lead to an implosion of the world's financial markets. The collapse which was narrowly avoided when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt could once again become a reality, a reality which no rational person wishes to contemplate. Financial economists refer to this as systemic risk: the possibility of the collapse of the financial system. For ordinary people it means the end of the world as we know it. No credit, a failed banking system, markets which seize up, etc etc.
All we can do is hope the US politicians will come to their sense before the eleventh hour. Only time will tell if sense will prevail, or if we really do stand on the edge of a financial precipice.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Summertime blues?
Summer in England is inconstant. One day the weather will be warm and sunny, the next cool and rainy. In fact, replace "one day" with "one hour" and the same applies. The predictable thing about the weather in England is its unpredictability. For some this is a cause for complaint; for others, myself included, it is one of the key attractions of living in a temperate climate on one of a series of islands off the north-east coast of continental Europe.
Now matter how unpredictable the weather in England, it is virtually guaranteed to remain within given limits. The possibility of snow is zero, although there can be the occasional day or two of tropical heat. It is this limited range of possibilities which makes the unpredictability attractive.
The same can also be said for English politics. In many ways it is even more predictable than the weather. I would argue that this is characteristic of a modern, stable democracy. There is no chance of an English version of the Arab Spring. The same is true of most of England's national neighbours. The main source of volatility is from second-generation migrants who are torn between their cultural roots and the culture of their adopted homeland. Experience shows that by the third generation most incoming families have become assimilated, even when they maintain connections to their roots. After all, isn't the stability why such migrant families moved in the first place?
Even where finance and the economy is concerned, there is a limited range of unpredictable volatility. For the individual or individual family the volatility may seem much more of a concern, although even then it is typically a relatively short time before they return to a more acceptable state of affairs than exist during an economic downturn (I speak from experience).
For those living in less developed countries the situation is much more parlous. The Horn of Africa is one location where unpredictability is also within a limited range, but the norm within that range is less than attractive. Famine due to severe weather conditions is much more commonplace than anyone with a conscience would regard as acceptable. When accompanied by war, or internal conflict, the situation on the ground is exacerbated for ordinary families. Warlords and others will accumulate whatever produce exists, making the famine all the worse by excluding most people from access to it.
Such a situation is now current in eastern Africa. Twice we have seen Bob Geldof and others run global charity concerts (Live Aid in 1985 and Live 8 in 2005) to raise funds to stem the tide of poverty in Africa and elsewhere. Despite these huge and laudable efforts, the problems remain. They would appear to be inevitable. Despite the fund-raising and the intellectual efforts of Development Economists, and the goodwill of well-meaning politicians, people continue to die from starvation in Africa. This does not mean that the world should shrug its shoulders and do nothing, or turn a blind eye; rather we need to look at this problem from a different, more radical perspective. That requires some other things which are also afflicted by famine: (i) the will to succeed, (ii) the acceptance of radical, entrepreneurial ideas.
However, the world is a cautious, conservative place, with people everywhere afraid to embrace new ideas and suggestions. Some people, as we have seen, are so fundamental in their beliefs that they would prefer to main and kill rather than even hear new ideas which might possibly come into conflict with their own. To bow to these pressures—the inertia of the status quoⓒ—is to accept what currently is; a form of surrender, which is inimical to human progress. New ideas need to be granted a full hearing, especially where problems exist which have seemed to be intractable for a ling time. Those who decry such inventiveness are themselves modern Luddites who would be happy to see us return to a contemporary dark age. Such people are easy to spot: their favourite word is no; their inability to listen to or make persuasive argument is their obvious characteristic. Such people give me the blues.
Now matter how unpredictable the weather in England, it is virtually guaranteed to remain within given limits. The possibility of snow is zero, although there can be the occasional day or two of tropical heat. It is this limited range of possibilities which makes the unpredictability attractive.
The same can also be said for English politics. In many ways it is even more predictable than the weather. I would argue that this is characteristic of a modern, stable democracy. There is no chance of an English version of the Arab Spring. The same is true of most of England's national neighbours. The main source of volatility is from second-generation migrants who are torn between their cultural roots and the culture of their adopted homeland. Experience shows that by the third generation most incoming families have become assimilated, even when they maintain connections to their roots. After all, isn't the stability why such migrant families moved in the first place?
Even where finance and the economy is concerned, there is a limited range of unpredictable volatility. For the individual or individual family the volatility may seem much more of a concern, although even then it is typically a relatively short time before they return to a more acceptable state of affairs than exist during an economic downturn (I speak from experience).
For those living in less developed countries the situation is much more parlous. The Horn of Africa is one location where unpredictability is also within a limited range, but the norm within that range is less than attractive. Famine due to severe weather conditions is much more commonplace than anyone with a conscience would regard as acceptable. When accompanied by war, or internal conflict, the situation on the ground is exacerbated for ordinary families. Warlords and others will accumulate whatever produce exists, making the famine all the worse by excluding most people from access to it.
Such a situation is now current in eastern Africa. Twice we have seen Bob Geldof and others run global charity concerts (Live Aid in 1985 and Live 8 in 2005) to raise funds to stem the tide of poverty in Africa and elsewhere. Despite these huge and laudable efforts, the problems remain. They would appear to be inevitable. Despite the fund-raising and the intellectual efforts of Development Economists, and the goodwill of well-meaning politicians, people continue to die from starvation in Africa. This does not mean that the world should shrug its shoulders and do nothing, or turn a blind eye; rather we need to look at this problem from a different, more radical perspective. That requires some other things which are also afflicted by famine: (i) the will to succeed, (ii) the acceptance of radical, entrepreneurial ideas.
However, the world is a cautious, conservative place, with people everywhere afraid to embrace new ideas and suggestions. Some people, as we have seen, are so fundamental in their beliefs that they would prefer to main and kill rather than even hear new ideas which might possibly come into conflict with their own. To bow to these pressures—the inertia of the status quoⓒ—is to accept what currently is; a form of surrender, which is inimical to human progress. New ideas need to be granted a full hearing, especially where problems exist which have seemed to be intractable for a ling time. Those who decry such inventiveness are themselves modern Luddites who would be happy to see us return to a contemporary dark age. Such people are easy to spot: their favourite word is no; their inability to listen to or make persuasive argument is their obvious characteristic. Such people give me the blues.
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