With increasing uncertainty about the state of the commodity markets, especially oil, it is perhaps quite surprising that the stock markets have been able to maintain the gains they have made since January of this year.

Does this mean that there is no oil crisis in the offing, or that it is simply not of the same scale as that of 1974 or 1981? After all, did the Western economies not learn from those crisis situations, with many now possessing a large buffer stock of oil? Certainly, the lessons of the past loom large in helping oil-consuming economies deal with the pressures of an uncertain world. But the situations in Nigeria, Iran and, to a lesser extent, Russia make for an uncomfortable situation here in the West. In my next blog I shall examine how we might best deal with the situation, after a preliminary investigation into the possible impact of a continuation—and even a worsening—of current events. Stay tuned!