2013 here we come!

Next week sees the secular New Year. And with each impending arrival of the New Year comes a time for reflection. Television, radio and the newspapers will fill copy with a review of the major events of 2012. In the UK this will consist primarily of the Queen's Jubilee and the London 2012 Olympics, both rip-roaring successes. Both events lifted the mood of the nation at a time of economic austerity, and enabled the population to indulge in its own peculiar, understated form of nationalism, while celebrating Britishness and enjoying the sporting success of both the home nation and those from overseas.

My personal recollection of 2012 is, like so many other years, something of a mixed bag. The one key event which made this past year unlike any other was being diagnosed and treated for angina. While I have always known that I was not immortal, this was a stark reminder of my own mortality. Even before undergoing the angiogram and surgery in September I had made peace within myself so that had the worst happened I was entirely prepared mentally. Fortunately, nothing of the kind happened, and I have been on the road to recovery ever since. Recovering from cardiac surgery also meant that I had to review the manner in which I supported my beloved Tottenham Hotspur. It has meant learning to be less outwardly emotional, more sanguine about matches, and to accept that I am unable individually to change things on the pitch. I cannot tell you at this point in time whether or not this has contributed to me enjoying matches more or less, but hope it is the former.

I was very lucky in the past year to have made friends with two authors, who both gave me an appearance or two in their recent publications. I was more than fortunate to have become acquainted with the legendary sportswriter, the great Julie Welch, who came to interview me in the early days of 2012 for her book, Spurs: The Biography. A thirty-minute interview turned into a several hour recollection of common interests and passions, notably all Spurs-related. We have remained in contact since then, and I am glad to be able to call Julie my friend. Through Julie I was contacted by Anthony Clavane, and made an appearance in his Does Your Rabbi Know You're Here? I felt very lucky to be invited to the official launch of this book, which came at an auspicious personal time for me, and provided a tremendous boost to my recovery. I cannot recommend both books enough; they are an excellent addition to anyone's library of books about football. Julie's has interest beyond the Spurs' fan alone, while Anthony's serves as an excellent volume of social history centred on football.

2012 has also been notable for the eurocrisis, and the inevitable economic austerity measures which have taken place. While there may be an economic case to be made for tax rises and reductions in government spending, it is hard to escape the feeling that some members of the UK government take a special pleasure in watching the general population suffer. I remain hopeful that living in a democracy means that we, the general population, can enjoy a high degree of schadenfreude when they are dismissed from office at the next general election. Despite the economic gloom, the squeezed disposable incomes, the rising prices, and the unemployment, there seems to be something of an emotional climbing away from the abyss at present. The mood seems to be slowly lifting and I would not be at all surprised to find 2013 the year in which the UK economy begins a slow but steady climb away from the "great contraction", which began in 2007 with the financial (sub-prime) crisis in the USA. If the EU can come to grips with its structural issues it will help immensely, both within the eurozone, the EU and the wider global economy.

I am looking forward to 2013, and hoping that for me it is a year of improved health. I am also looking forward to being more productive in my academic output, and have already begun writing an Economics textbook for MBAs (I really must fill in the contract and send it back). I have a couple of other research projects on slow-burn in the background as well, and with a little luck and some commitment on my part my CV will continue to fill up. However, nothing is more important than family and my wife and I will celebrate 16 years of marriage on January 26th. It is hard for me to imagine what kind of madness prompted her to accept my marriage proposal in the first place, let alone put up with me for such a long time. But, whatever the cause I am decidedly grateful for the effect. It is impossible for me to imagine what life without her would have been like. Similarly for the output of the marriage, two (almost) teenage children of whom I am immensely proud! My son is a gem of a lad, with a passion for technology; my daughter is still finding her way in the world, and currently has ambition to become something of a MasterChef. But on the wedding anniversary of her parents, my daughter will become Bat Mitzvah at our local synagogue, and I feel sure my wife and I will both be glowing with immense pride that day. I can only hope that my heart does not burst with too much pride.

My other desire for 2013 is to see Spurs be more successful than in recent years. Yes, they have been improving and showing more consistency than heretofore, although coming fourth in the Premier League and yet being denied a Champions League slot still rankles as grossly unfair. My dream is to see Spurs win a trophy or two this season. While I hope we can achieve a Champions League placing (not least because of the extra cashflow it brings) history books list winners of trophies, and Spurs' history is primarily one of cup wins.

However your 2012 has been and whatever you wish for 2013, I wish you every health and happiness, and if my predictions are accurate, an improvement in your prosperity.

Have a heart

In September of this year, some three months ago. I spent some time at the London Chest Hospital in Bethnal Green. For some months I had been having chest pains, which mainly occurred when walking and also when under stress, and they had been getting more severe and more painful with each passing week. A visit to my GP in early May led to a visit to my local "rapid access chest clinic", who diagnosed me with angina. Caused by blockages to the arteries, I was then referred to the London Chest Hospital for an angiogram to check out what seemed to be a minor case of angina. I was told I might need to have a stent (a small tube) inserted, but that such an operation alongside the angiogram would probably take no more than an hour, it being a non-invasive procedure.

So, on September 11th I showed up nice and early at the London Chest Hospital, a little on the nervous side, but also hungry and with rapidly declining blood sugar levels not having eaten since 5:30am that morning. I had been given to expect to be done and on my home around lunchtime, but should have know better.

The nurse who eventually received us (there were three of us awaiting cardiac surgery that morning) 45 minutes after we had been told to arrive informed us that there was an "emergency audit" of the labs (meaning operating theatres) and that operations would start around 12:30pm. Fortunately, there was a little food (dry cream crackers) in the waiting area, which helped my still rapidly reducing blood sugar levels. But at 12:30pm I was called to walk to the lab. Fully clothed I climbed onto the operating table, and was given diazepam to relax my muscles, so that they could insert the catheter into the arteries and undertake the angiogram. Unfortunately, the arteries in my arm were a bit less-than-linear, so they opted to not go via my wrist. Next thing I knew two very attractive young nurses were whipping off my trousers so they could go in via the groin artery! The angiogram makes use of a very dark dye which is pumped through the arterial system and shows up on an X-ray screen. It was clear that several of my arteries were clogged, and would require treatment of some kind.

The surgeon came to chat with me and told me that at least FOUR stents would be needed and that I might like to consider opting for a bypass operation which they could perform there and then. However, the combination of nerves and diazepam made me feel less than suitably equipped for making such a momentous decision. I was also given the option of leaving hospital and re-booking once I had decided which way to go: stents or bypass. This seemed like the worst of all possible worlds. So, armed with the information they gave me, I opted for the stents to be inserted.

At first it seemed quite a pleasant if boring experience, lying on a table, feeling very little going on inside me, with only the surgeon, nurses and other medical staff buzzing around chatting to each other in technical terms. The first three hours passed quite easily, but by the fourth I was starting to feel some internal pain, for which I received morphine. On the table for nearly four hours was quite an experience, and the final 15-30 minutes I found quite painful indeed. But it was soon over, and I was moved upstairs to the ward.

Because the operation had been lengthier and more complex than originally expected I was kept in overnight. Which meant I woke up on September 12th (my birthday) in the London Chest Hospital! After many chats with all manner of medical staff I was finally released in time to go home for a birthday tea with my family.

Recovery has been a long and arduous process, but I no longer feel the oppressive pain of angina. I still get odd tweaks and sensations in my chest cavity, but these might be the product of a fertile imagination. I have spent the last eight weeks undergoing cardiac rehab at home (well, mostly walking in the park and the streets) with regular calls from the cardiac nurse or physiotherapist. I had my last session with them yesterday, and was told I had made a 34% improvement over the eight weeks. I am still awaiting my final checkup with the surgeon, which should have been on 3 months, but with an ageing population I suspect calls for his services are pretty hectic. And I need to continue to learn to avoid stress, so try not to worry about such things too much.

I have received much support during this time from family and friends, including many friends whom I only know through online contact via social media. The support and encouragement of those who have also been through this experience has been invaluable to me, and helped me even when things seemed bleak. I have become much more aware of my own mortality, which does nothing to permit one to enjoy the good things in life without worry. I try to live each day as it comes in much the same way as I always did, but there remains this nagging doubt that the inevitable heart attack is just a matter of time. I have tried to take on board all of the advice I have been given with regard to diet (more fruit and veg, more oily fish) and exercise (30 minutes a day, 5 days a week minimum), and there is no doubt that this has helped my recovery. I don't know if private medical care would have been better, but I cannot fault the NHS for their care of me, for which I thank them from the bottom of my heart. The only remaining thing which would help me continue to recover all the quicker would be for Spurs to stop letting in late goals and throwing away points. A Premier League campaign which saw Spurs win the title, or a cup or two, would be just the tonic the doctor ordered!

Stop being a Herbert, Peter!

Oh dear. I see that Peter Herbert is trying to raise his profile once again. Someone should tell this self-aggrandising self-important irrelevance that he needs to stop thinking he is David Baddiel and deal with the source of the racism (BTW I have been led to believe that anti-Semitism is considered separately from racism, as being Jewish does not constitute a race).

I would refer Herbert to John Efron's learned article on the usage of the term Yids by Spurs supporters, but doubt this would fit in with his attempts to raise his profile. However, let me state once again quite simply the following:

• I am a person of the Jewish faith, a member of the 12 tribes of Israel.
• I abhor totally and unequivocally any form of racism or anti-Semitism.
• If a gentile calls me a Yid then I am very likely to be offended (at the very least), as this is a term which has a long history of being abusive when applied to Jews, and has often been followed by physical oppression and violence.
• The use of the term by Spurs supporters began in the late 1970s as a response to anti-Semitic abuse from opposing fans, who (mistakenly) believe Spurs to be a Jewish football club.
• It has since been claimed as a badge of honour by Spurs fans, for whom many (especially the younger fans) it has become synonymous with supporting Spurs. Such younger fans typically have no knowledge of its origins as an anti-Semitic epithet. The same may also be increasingly said of younger fans of opposing teams.

Mr Herbert: if you are truly serious about removing racism and anti-Semitism from football then you should start by dealing with the large sections of clubs such as Chelsea which constantly barrack Spurs on the basis of our alleged Jewish connections. When they stop calling us "dirty Yids" and making gas chamber sounds, when they stop singing "Spurs areon their way to Auschwitz" I will happily then campaign for my fellow Spurs fans to stop applying the term Yids to ourselves.

I am delighted that Spurs themselves have seen fit to point this lawyer to the terms of the law itself, with which he seems to be not entirely familiar.

Ivan "DrHotspur" Cohen

Glad to be a Yid in every sense of the word.

Style is always in fashion

During the Summer months it has long been my custom to catch up on my reading. I have just finished re-reading Alison Weir's Eleanor of Aquitaine, which has given me a new perspective on early English history, and have just commenced re-reading John Hicks' Causality in Economics.


The story of Eleanor of Aquitaine provides strong clues to the beginnings of what we might refer to as the English national character. Set in the late 1100s, England is coming to terms with the Norman invasion which took place two generations earlier, and still has a strong connection to the lands which now make up France. Her second marriage to Henry II, and the story of two of Eleanor's sons, Richard I of England ("the Lionhearted") and John of England, have strong parallels with the later tale of Henry VIII. These are pivotal moments in the history of England, defining what was to become acceptable and unacceptable, via custom and precedent, and also via national institutions. The conflicts between European monarchs and the Pope (head of the Roman Catholic church) mirrors in some small way the current to-and-fro between individual EU nations and the EU in toto. It is also interesting to note that governments a millenium ago faced similar economic problems to those of today: mounting debt, difficulties in raising taxes, international trade problems, etc. Additionally, it is intriguing how much of the contemporary documents of Eleanor's time dwell on her looks and fashionable dress, as well as those of others, both men and women, but primarily women. In this respect Eleanor can be seen as the Kate Middleton of her day, although her convoluted love-life bears greater resemblance to the late mother-in-law of the Duchess of Cambridge! Eleanor of Aquitaine was a fashion icon and a model for future strong women striving to succeed in a male-dominated world.


John Hicks can accurately be described as one of the finest Economists of the 20th century. Less well-known than personalities such as John Maynard Keynes or Milton Friedman, his contributions to Economics span almost the entire field of study. He was partly responsible for the measurement of national economic well-being via GDP, and has contributed to major developments in monetary economics, finance, welfare economics and capital theory. However, in addition to these phenomenal contributions, in my mind John Hicks supersedes many of his contemporaries and those who followed because of the clarity of his expositions. Put simply, Hicks writes well. His style is no longer fashionable; academic expositions today lack the charm and grace which pervades Hicks' work. Despite often being technical, his writing style comes across much more as a conversation piece, or a narrative. It is almost chatty, and in that respect it is far more engaging than the dry, dull, insipid pieces which litter the plethora of academic journals of today. To write an academic article today which betrays any sense of character is guaranteed to ensure non-publication. Hicks is a writer with style; he writes the way Eleanor of Aquitaine dressed and deported herself almost a thousand years earlier.


I have also spent the past two weeks enjoying the European football championships (EURO 2012). As with dress and writing, football enjoys cycles of fashionability. This year's EUROs have seen a revival of passing football, with the better teams tending to enjoy significant percentages of possession. Last night's quarter-final encounter between England and Italy epitomised a clash of styles. The Italians, who are traditionally renowned for a defensive style of football (catenaccio) offered a freer-flowing, more attacking fluid style which was both pleasing on the eye and successful. By comparison, the English national team offered a stoic, ultra-defensive form of catenaccio, without any real flair or pace to counter-attack. It was a clash of styles, and it is football's good fortune that the more flowing style won out. Not just in last night's game, but throughout the tournament to-date. As a long-time Spurs' supporter I am an avid believer in the philosophy out forward by the late Danny Blanchflower:


"The great fallacy is that the game is first and last about winning. It’s nothing of the kind. The game is about glory. It is about doing things in style, with a flourish, about going out and beating the other lot, not waiting for them to die of boredom."


Style is timeless; fashion is something of its time. All human beings in their teens are subject to following the fashions of their time, whether it is in clothing, makeup, tattoos and piercings, manner of speech, hairstyle, and so on. It is therefore universal that when we look back to the way we look and acted in our teens we are so often aghast and, in some cases, ashamed. When we are young we are subject to fashion; as we grow older we find that style is much more important, and timeless. Eleanor of Aquitaine was a woman of style. The work of John Hicks possesses style. Football which is based on a fluid passing game has style. We should reject all else.

Tempus fugit: adapt or die.

There can be few places as full of interesting things to see and do as London. With its lengthy history, amazing plethora of buildings and museums, as well as a huge range of things to do—often for free—Samuel Johnson's adage ("when a man is tired of London, he is tired of life") remains even more true today as it was when he coined it.


For Father's Day (yesterday) my kids took me to see the Cutty Sark. One of the fastest tea clippers in its time, this ancient ship has seen much of "those twin imposters", Triumph and Disaster since it was built in 1869. Sailing between England and China, with stops in Australia, the Cutty Sark was widely regarded as a marvel of its time with a hull made from Muntz metal (a brass-like alloy, of 60% copper and 40% zinc). Although not the fastest of the tea clippers, the Cutty Sark was still able to sail from Shanghai to London in 110 days, with a cargo of 600,000 kilograms of tea; enough for more than 200 million cups!


In 1870 the Cutty Sark was one of 50 British sailing ships bringing tea back from China. Within seven years she was one of nine, as steamships and the opening of the Suez Canal (which was not passable by sailing ships) made the clippers less competitive. By 1883 her tea shipping voyages were over, but there was still life in the old girl as she turned to bringing wool from Australia to England until 1895, as well as other products from that far side of the world. In 1895 Cutty Sark was sold to a Lisbon-based company who rebranded her the Ferreira, playing her trade between Portugal and its African colonies and Brazil. However, by the end of World War I her days as a sea-going vessel were numbered, as the costs of maintaining her exceeded her ability to generate revenues.


A technological marvel in 1869 was essentially an anachronism within a few decades. Her competitive advantage having been eliminated by the constant flow of newer technologies.


This simple lesson was brought home to me further this past week. I watched Branagh's film version of Shakespeare's Henry V. The small band of Englishmen who defeated vastly superior numbers of French at Agincourt and Crecy were able to do so because they possessed superior technology in the form of the longbow. Yet again, within a few decades this superiority was eliminated as this technology was adopted by other nations, and ultimately by the invention of firearms.


Living in the 21st century with an almost-constant flow of technology, particularly in the form of smartphones, laptop computers and tablets such as the iPad, we ought to be more aware of the speed with which a product's competitive advantage can be eliminated. But because so much of today's technical change is evolutionary rather than revolutionary we remain more blasé and unaware. We know that next year there will be a new smartphone/laptop/tablet brought out, but there is little to distinguish it from its predecessor other than faster speed, brighter and better displays, and more applications which it can run. The wow! factor which accompanied the first personal computers has become diminished. The first iPad had a strong element of wow! as did the first iPod and iPhone, but with each successive generation that factor has been strongly reduced. It is only with some apparently entirely new product that wow! returns.


The morale of this tale is apparent: companies which do not continue to revolutionise their products will fall foul of the competition. Cutty Sark was able to continue its life beyond that of a tea clipper for several decades by shipping other products from the far side of the world back to England. Will we be able to find new uses for our older smartphones, laptops and iPads as they become obsolete with greater rapidity? Or do we lack that kind of ingenuity? Tempus fugit—time flies. Will we ever be able to keep pace with it, or must each generation fall by the wayside unable to compete with the next generation?

The euro crisis lingers on

A crisis is a noun referring to:

A time of intense difficulty, trouble, or danger. A time when a difficult or important decision must be made, such as "a crisis point of history".

The current situation within the eurozone is certainly an example of the first definition, but it remains to be seen whether or not it ultimately becomes an example of the second. The main problem with any kind of crisis is that it may involve the taking of a difficult and important decision. Commentators at all levels have once again been focused on the "Greek question": should Greece remain in the eurozone, or would it be better of by leaving the European single currency, and reinstating its own national currency (the "new drachma" perhaps?!)?

Consequently the Greek government has a difficult and important decision to make. Should Greece opt to remain in the euro it will be subject to all of the strictures which are required in order for the single European currency to remain a viable pan-European currency. This means what the press are fond of referring to as "austerity" measures. In fact, what is required is for governments such as those in Greece to reduce their spending and possibly increase taxation. This is largely because such governments have been profligate in the past and spent so heavily that it required them to borrow large quantities of debt which are not sustainable. Were Greece an individual or company it would long ago have had to declare bankruptcy.

What is almost amusing for us in the UK is that Greeks are being asked to raise the age of retirement to 65 from 55. Such a move is one of a number which would swiftly reduce government spending, but is being staunchly opposed by the Greek population. In the UK the age of retirement has been raised to 67, and is likely to go even higher over the next few decades. But there is a recognition here that the original age of retirement in the UK (60 for women, 65 for men) was based on a significantly reduced lifespan than is now the case. As people live longer it becomes less affordable for a Pay-As-You-Go (or intergenerational transfer) system to exist without significant change. For reasons best known to themselves, the Greeks are unwilling to recognise this fact.

But State pensions are not the only government expenditure which the Greeks need to reduce. And any reduction in State spending is bound to have detrimental effects on different sectors of the economy. In the case of Greece it can be argued that the "cuts" have been poorly handled, both in terms of the way they have been sold to the population, and also in terms of whom they hit the hardest; it seems to be the case in Greece that they have fallen with the biggest burden on those who can least afford to deal with their impact.

So what is to happen in Greece? The recent elections in Greece failed to produce a working government; none of the major parties seemed willing or able enough to compromise and form a coalition with any of the other parties. Greece no long has a working democratic government, but a caretaker government which is largely unable to make any major decisions. The next general election will be in June 2012, barely a month after those in May which proved indecisive. There remains a significantly high probability that these will yield similar results as in May, leaving the Greek decision on its position in the eurozone in limbo for the foreseeable future. At a time when many are expecting to take such an important decision for its own identity and economic and political future there is not a government in place to take such an important decision. And therein lies the real Greek tragedy.

It is my considered view that while there may be short-term gains from a Greek withdrawal from the euro, the long-term costs to Greece would be at least as significant as their currently unsustainable debt. It is all too easy seeing Greece go down the path of default previously experienced by countries such as Argentina, and the move towards a more extremist divisive politics which that often entails. With increasing trends towards coalition government in many countries there are important political lessons to be learned from the Greek experience. While I am not in favour of the straitjacket of balanced budget laws, governments need to find a way to borrow more sustainably in future. Reliance on the financial markets to provide discipline will not work if the markets themselves are not properly regulated, and lenders feel themselves to be well-insured on a "too big to fail" basis. The key problem is one of moral hazard, a form of market failure all too well-known to textbook writers but not to the regulators of financial markets and institutions. 

It is therefore of crucial importance that as governments try to bring their finances under control, they do so in a manner which does not jeopardise the well-being of the populations they are meant to represent; even though it may involve costs, it is important those costs fall on those who can best bear them. However, without a well-thought plan to improve the regulation of the financial system on a global basis (rather than a knee-jerk reaction to the contemporary) we will see a similar situation arise again within the next 20-25 years, when the lessons of this crisis have become history. And we know what happens to those who forget the lessons of history ...

Happy new year?

As the New Year celebrations and fireworks fade slowly into the mists of memory the year 2012 looms ahead as an empty canvas awaiting the painter's brush. "What lies ahead?" is the question which so many of us ask at this time, as if the future is already established, and we only need to wait and see if what we hope it promises will be fulfilled. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth.

The future is something we ourselves have to write, not sit back and wait to read. It is up to us to ensure we fulfil our own destinies, to fulfil our potentials to the best of our abilities, and not to assume that the future is "written in the stars". With freedom of will comes responsibility. We may not be able to fully determine our own circumstances by our own actions, but we can surely achieve 'failure' by our own inaction.

The New Year is little more than an arbitrary break in the calendar. There is no rationale by which the change from December 31st to January 1st should indicate any major changes in our lives. It is no different from the move from (e.g.) September 15th to September 16th. However, the change of calendar year combined with the time away from work, often spent in the company of good friends and family, affords us the opportunity for self-reflection. Such an opportunity permits us to consider what we might have done differently or better in the past, and to learn how to approach things differently in future. But it is a matter of personal willpower whether or not one succeeds in becoming a "better person" this year.

This applies both in the small—at the personal level—and in the large—such as in business and politics, for example. While us ordinary mortals try to make minor adjustments to fulfil our potential we hope that our business leaders and politicians will do likewise, especially as we have just come out of a year with so many pessimistic circumstances. The holiday period has seen a respite from news reports on the euro-crisis or wars and revolutions in the Middle East and elsewhere, but these will resume as we wend our weary way back to work in the next few days. I hope that politicians can stick to their resolve and make (at least) minor improvements in the lives of those who elected them and beyond. It is my fervent hope that EU politicians can resolve their petty nationalistic differences and pull together in the interests of ALL of Europe.

However, my most fervent hope for 2102 (beyond what I hope for my family) is to see my beloved Spurs continue in the rich vein of form which has lifted them to third in the Premier League. Who knows? Perhaps we might even win the title this year!?!

Wishing you all that is best for 2012, although I know it is entirely in your own hands.