Hope and fiction

Last week I was pleased to receive my membership pack from Tottenham Hotspur. As a season ticket holder, I am automatically registered as a member of the members' club, known as "One Hotspur". In the past the pack has been quite generously stocked, with all manner of team memorabilia, such as scarves and flags. This year the pack consists of a CD, with fluff for one's PC, and a DVD, with a review of last season, and a small cockerel badge. This is much the same as last season. Of course, there are also other, intangible members' benefits, including some merchandise discounts, but I have to wonder if it might not be better to simply reduce the price of the season ticket? I expect that it could be argued that the cost of reproducing a CD and DVD for season ticket holders would hardly offset the expense of a younger player's salary, so perhaps I am being churlish. However, I believe that the merchandise that comes with the Junior Spurs' Membership makes much more sense, both commercially and for generating long-term loyalty, as such tangible benefits enable the younger supporter to show their affiliation in a direct way. It provides for an open display of hope on the part of younger supporters, hope that their team will provide glory and trophies in the years to come!

Against this hope there is reality: like every other business, football is not immune from the credit crunch and recession. While much of the evidence suggests that the recession has already bottomed out, the ability to raise funds from the financial system remains more difficult than any time since the early 1990s. Interest rates may be at historic lows, but the drop in property prices over the past few years also means that football clubs have less collateral to put up against further loans. And with banks increasingly concerned over more risky loans, borrowed money to transfer in a player would seem particularly volatile. There can be few businesses with as volatile earnings as a top-flight football club. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that loans to football clubs could be seen as more toxic than some instruments in the derivatives markets.

With borrowed money in short supply, there can be no surprise that the football transfer market has been so quiet, apart from a small handful of "marquee" signings. These latter have not been financed in the more normal way, but are much more due to cash injections to (eg) Real Madrid and Manchester City from mega-wealthy new owners. Over the next few months I shall be investigating the debt position of clubs in the English Premier League to see if (i) there is any correlation to their League and Cup performances, and (ii) to see how sustainable their debt positions are. Past research on football has shown that there is a direct correlation between the "wage bill" of a club and its league performance. This evidence stands in stark contrast to the commonly-held view that it is transfer spending which is the key driver of success. Of course, there must be some degree of correlation between a player's wages and his transfer fee, but this is hardly direct nor monotonic.

As a fanatical supporter of Tottenham Hotspur, I have not been surprised that there have been very few transfers, the main exception being the transfer of Didier Zokora to Sevilla. Like many clubs, Spurs will need to sell before they can buy. And given Spurs' commitment to build a new stadium in the next few years, this financial pressure is probably more sever in N17 than elsewhere in the Premiership. Spurs had a miserable start to last season—the worst in the club's history—which was only turned around when Harry Redknapp was brought in as manager, ending with a creditable top-half Premiership finish and an appearance in the Carling Cup Final (lost to Manchester United on penalties). There is something of a consensus among Spurs' supporters that the current squad is essentially sound, requiring only some minor tweaking. Spurs need cover for centre-back, perhaps a better old-fashioned centre-forward, and most definitely a left-winger. In all other positions there is good competition for places. And yet, the transfer rumour mill has been busy with Spurs interested in central midfielders (Patrick Vieira!), right midfielders (David Beckham) and forwards from Real Madrid. These latter might make some sense if they are as replacements for outgoing forwards (Bent? Pavluychenko?), but other rumours make much less sense. On the one hand, Summer has often been regarded as the "silly season" in journalism; but on the other hand, sometimes truth is stranger than fiction!

Currently at Spurs there are several players competing for the right-back position: Vedran Corluka, Alan Hutton, Pascal Chimbonda being the top three. Now Spurs are apparently about to outbid Everton for TWO right-backs from Sheffield United. The cost of these two very young players (both named Kyle!): some £8m, a little more than the reported fee obtained from the sale of Zokora. Where is the logic? Unless two of these three are about to be sold—and there has been no reported interest in any of them—it is hard to determine why Spurs feel the need to add to their squad for this position. It is all the more insane when there are three positions (outlined above) in which Spurs do have a need. Is it any wonder that banks have problems in lending to football clubs which engage in such transfer practices?

And so the pre-season trundles along merrily. Last year, Spurs won all of their pre-season matches in style offering supporters a great hope for the season, which was soon dashed when the friendly matches ceased. So far, Spurs have beaten lowly Exeter City and tonight face the might of Bournemouth. While I recognise the main importance of such matches is much more about fitness and tactics than results, supporters do look to these public displays for omens of what is to come. These omens are more likely to be available when Spurs play in the Barclays Cup at Wembley at the end of July, and in the Asia Cup thereafter. For these games we might realistically begin to expect to see the manager begin to play his favoured formations and players, rather than just give almost everyone a game to improve their fitness. We hope that the expectations generated will not prove, like last season, to be a fiction.

Scouting for Boys ... and Girls!

It has been an interesting week of family achievements in my household. On Monday evening my eight-year old daughter was formally invested into the Brownies. The Brownies held their weekly meeting at a local park, and it was with great pride that we watched her make her "Brownie Promise" and receive the applause of her fellow Brownies. She has come a long way in the few short months in which she has been attending. Despite taking part in "Circuits 4 Kids" immediately after school and just before Brownies, she seems to have a great deal of creative and physical energy for her extra-curricular activities. We hope she will continue to enjoy Brownies for many years, and that she will graduate in due course to become a Girl Guide.

My son achieved the milestone of his eleventh birthday on Tuesday. It has been a great pleasure to have watched him grow and develop these past eleven years. He is a sweet-natured, good-humoured, funny and clever boy, with the occasional tendency to become melodramatic, which I suspect he has inherited from his father and grandfather! Next week he will be invested in the Boy Scouts at their annual Barbeque picnic. Like his sister, he has been attending for some months with great enjoyment of all the activities involved. The Summer weather (until this week) has meant that his Troop have been meeting outdoors in one of north London's Scout Parks for the past several weeks, with appropriate outdoor activities.

It is a matter of some personal pride that both son and daughter are now well-established in the Scouting movement. I began as a Cub when I was seven years of age, and continued in Scouting until after I commenced my undergraduate life at University, and could no longer find the time. All three of my brothers were also both Cubs and Scouts. My father provided a great deal of support to our Troop over the years, and was ultimately rewarded with a special Scouting badge which he wore with pride. It is reassuring that this wonderful organisation continues to inspire and teach young people, as well as provide them with a strong moral message about the importance of self within community.

In a few weeks my son will be finished at his primary school, where he already seems to have become entirely disinterested and motivationless. Both Year 6 classes did put on a wonderful end-of-year show, "Cinderella Rockerfella", which showcased the talents of each and every student in a rousing, all-singing, all-dancing extravaganza (unlike the boring school plays of my own era!). An enthralling two hours of almost-professional entertainment; much credit to the teachers for their patience and inspiration, as well as immaculate casting, choreography and direction.

In September my son will be starting life at his new secondary school, which is quite some distance from home, which will require him to wake up even earlier to meet the "school bus" at 7:15 am! It may be something of a rude awakening as he finds he has to suddenly become much more self-sufficient, although I hope that his upbringing to-date will stand him in good stead. With academic study at primary school having been virtually absent since Year 6 finished their SATs (my son calls them "exams to make the school look good", in which he is entirely accurate!), he may well find it difficult to regain academic momentum in September. He will certainly need "to hit the ground running". Over the next few weeks will be out and about buying his uniform and other supplies for the new school. Unlike my era, he will not require a school cap nor a posh briefcase! Equally, we will need to provide him with his own door-key and a mobile phone, purely for emergency use. I understand that some of his peers have already been bought smart new mobile phones; my son will receive an older "candy bar" style Nokia as it is entirely about functionality, not the shallow pursuit of status through shopping.

With half an eye on September, the upcoming football season comes to mind. My own team, Tottenham Hotspur, have yet to buy or sell any players. Indeed, it may well be that like many football clubs during the credit crunch, they will need to sell first to acquire the funds to buy. This is something of a Catch 22, as many clubs don't wish to sell a player unless they have a suitable replacement lined up! Despite a relatively quiet transfer market (apart from a small handful of very high-priced dilettantes), there is much for me to look forward to: Spurs are playing in both the Wembley Cup and also the Asia Cup, two competitions which are to be televised live on SKY. At one time I used to spend a great deal of time and money on pre-season matches, but find they do not offer much of a glimpse into how the team will perform, neither are they necessarily as entertaining as matches in "real" competitions. Still, after many weeks without football, a pre-season friendly or two will make for a good appetiser for the many event to come. With the recent collapse of Setanta, it will be interesting to see if ESPN can avoid making the same errors and come up with a business model which will make financial sense, and a product which (unlike Setanta) will appeal to the footballing public. More on this next blog.