Thursday, November 03, 2011

Adrift on a sea of ignorant bliss?

A large passenger cruise liner has been at sea for some weeks, the passengers enjoying the sun, sea, good food and camaraderie aboard. Then, one day, the engines cease working and a small hole is discovered in the hold. Water is trickling in, slowly at first but faster with each passing day. But the ship remains listless at sea, adrift hundreds of miles from the nearest shores.

At first no-one feels it right to inform the passengers. The captain sets crews to work on plugging the ever-increasing hole in the hold and on trying to restart the engines. Neither works, so the captain sacks the workers. If the engines are not working there is no need to employ and pay those who would normally be running the ship nor the engineers who maintain the engines. And there are nowhere near enough lifeboats to save even a small minority aboard, even assuming those lifeboats could make it the hundreds of miles to land.

At this point an SOS radio message is sent out requesting help. But the response is slow. After all, the messages from shore come back, if you got yourself into this mess you should get yourself out of it. But food is running low, and with no engines the tropical heat is becoming unbearable without air conditioning. The passengers start to become restless and want to know what is happening. When they find out that this situation has been going on for some time they become hostile and aggravated. Food is on low rations (except for the captain and his immediate crew, of course). So further SOS calls are made.

Eventually the captain is informed that a small emergency flotilla has been established, and will be leaving shortly to help make emergency repairs to the cruise liner, and bring food and fuel and other supplies for the crew and passengers.All seems to be improving on board the ship, although water continues to flood into the hold at an ever-increasing rate. The ship is already listing heavily to one side.

The captain responds to the call from shore, telling them to not yet send the emergency aid. He first needs to organise a vote and see if the flotilla is acceptable to the passengers and crew. The captain advises the rescue team he will send them the result of the vote in a week or so.

Obviously, the scenario above is patently absurd, yet it mirrors the tragedy unfurling daily with the Greek economy. The Greek government is barely able to pay its debts; it has permitted its citizens to enjoy the luxury of their sunbeds in ignorance of the truth for too long. After a great deal of faffing around, eventually the other countries of the eurozone, led by France and Germany, organise a rescue package. Just when things are starting to look better, the Greek PM insists on putting the rescue package to his Parliament and also to a referendum of the people. Absurd! When political and economic leadership is called for in Greece, there is the cowardice of the pretence of democracy. All the while the problems of the Greek economy are having ripple effects felt, first in neighbouring European countries, and also in the rest of the world. While Athens sinks in the mire, Papandreou continues with his fiddling about, failing to take the important decisions for which leaders are usually elected.

The natural reaction to all this is to put out of joint the noses of those who had laboured long and hard to agree a rescue package. This may also have taken too long, but for Greece to run round and bite that hand that would enable it to continue to feeds its citizens smacks too much of cutting off one's one nose to spite one's face. If it is a matter of pride, the Papandreou needs to be reminded that pride comes before a fall. Rarely before in the field of human conduct has there been so much foolishness from those who ought to know better in such a short space of time.

At the time of writing it is hard to predict whether or not Greece will continue to remain a member country of the eurozone (the European single currency). The odds seem stacked against. But with or without Greece the euro will plod on a Europe's single currency. Should Greece decide to exit the eurozone its ability to raise funds on the world's capital markets will become severely compromised, leading to likely default on many Greek borrowings around the world. The near future of the world, and its possible medium-term destiny has been compromised by the inadequate leadership of one man: Papandreou. He will join the pantheon of ancient Greeks, known not for their heroism, but for their tragic qualities.