Spurs: living la vida loca

Following an incredible win at Villa Park on Sunday, my favourite football team, Tottenham Hotspur have now reached the heady position of 11th in the Premiership. This is a fantastic achievement on the part of manager Harry Redknapp. When Spurs sacked his predecessor, Juande Ramos, and appointed Harry, Spurs lay at the foot of the league table with only 2 points from 8 games: 2 points from a possible 24. As well as that remarkable transformation in Premiership fortunes, Spurs also reached the Carling Cup Final for a second consecutive year, albeit losing to Manchester United on penalties. One has to wonder: what is the secret of this success? After all, the squad is essentially the same as that available to Ramos...

I would argue that there are a few "secrets" behind the Spurs' transformation. In my mind, there is no doubt that Redknapp is an excellent man-manager, capable of bringing the best out of those players at his disposal. This has been more than amply illustrated by the return to international form of mercurial winger Aaron Lennon and the greater ability to play of club skipper Ledley King. Against this, one has to wonder if Harry can put his magic to work on the likes of David Bentley. Before transferring to Spurs last Summer, Bentley had been a star player for Blackburn, attracting the best kind of attention from football's pundits and journalists alike. Yet he has not yet been able to recapture that kind of form in a Spurs' shirt, although he will always be remembered for THAT GOAL scored in an amazing 4-4 draw at the Emirates. It is my personal hope that the close season will see Bentley acquire his previous form and become a Spurs legend next season.

In addition to personal relationships, Harry Redknapp also appears to be a decent top-flight tactician. His tactics have mostly been designed to bring out the best performances from Spurs and also to deny the opposition. And as the season has progressed and he has learned his players' various strengths and weaknesses he has increasingly got the tactics correct. Of course, no manager can ever get it right all the time, but his ability to change things quickly when they do not appear to be working shows a manager who has the flexibility to change things when needed, and the maturity to not worry about losing face. This was illustrated at Villa Park: the choice of Didier Zokora at right-back was presumably for the added pace to defend against the pacey Ashley Young. Yet Young gave Zokora a torrid time. It was not too long before Zokora was replaced by Vedran Corluka. Although a significantly slower player, Corluka is an excellent reader of football matches, and soon had Young "in his pocket".

And so, at the time of writing, the optimists are looking to Spurs to reach as high as 7th in the Premiership, although the league is so tight that relegation is still a mathematical possibility. The form of Spurs under Redknapp suggests that the latter is unlikely, but there is still some way to go. The performance of the central midfielders needs significant improvement; I have yet to be convinced that (eg) Palacios offers anything different in that position to Zokora, although he still may require much more time to settle in at a new club. And while the improved form has meant fewer goalkeeping errors, it is still an area that requires consideration. The 4-4-2 formation does not make best use of the little Croation genius, Luka Modric. And the left-side of midfield seems to remain enigmatically an unsolved riddle.

No doubt, come May and the close season these will be matters to which Redknapp and his management team turn their attentions. Summer will be an intriguing time for the transfer market, especially with many teams throughout the world suffering from the effects of the credit crunch and ensuing recession. It is a show that I would not miss, any more than I would miss an episode of "The Apprentice" with Sir Alan Sugar, which commences next week on Wednesday (March 25th).

Tottenham Hotspur 2008-2009

For the avid Spurs' fan like me, this season has been of largely ignominious and forgettable proportions. Aside from a trip to Wembley in early March for the Carling Cup Final there has not been a great deal in the Spurs' cup of cheer. And while the occasion at Wembley is always something to look forward to, and the game itself was not too bad, the loss to Manchester United on penalties was disappointing, even if I try to regard their victory as pyrrhic. After all, the record books will show that Spurs lost the final, and in future decades no-one will wonder about the details. For Manchester United it is simply another notch on their almost-inevitable trophy gathering journey through the 21st century.

Sports have a dimension which parallels other aspects of life, in that momentum always plays a big part in determining how destiny will play out. The adage that "success breeds success" is one simple linguistic recognition of that fact. In football, as in other sports, momentum can be a cruel or pleasing mistress. This applies to both momentum within a game as well as over the course of a season. With my beloved Spurs, the loss of the first eight games this season was a downward momentum too difficult to turn around easily, and one only matched by the downward march of stockmarkets and macroeconomies. Such an extended downturn has only one obvious solution to football's decision-makers and fans alike: sack the manager! The dismissal of Juande Ramos paralleled that of his predecessor, Martin Jol. The only key difference being that Jol had twice brought Spurs to fifth position in the Premiership, close enough for anyone connected with the Club to smell the heady feast offered at the Premiership's top table: a place in the UEFA Champions' League. Thus, when Martin Jol's team failed to continue its momentum in 2007-2008 from a season earlier, the dashed expectations meant only one thing: sack the manager!

It is hard to find a Spurs' fan who believes that Spurs should have persisted with Juande Ramos; not so with Martin Jol. The current manger, Harry Redknapp, has done a magnificent job in turning round Spurs' fortunes, stopping the downward momentum and managing to instill enough confidence in the players to begin upward momentum. But Redknapp is not every fans' cup of tea; there remains question-marks over his ability to take Spurs to the next level, assuming that he can actually help avoid relegation. But the Premiership table is so tight, that even this cannot be taken for granted, but neither can the possibility of finishing as high as seventh (which would constitute a minor miracle of Biblical proportions!).

The return of Spurs' favourites Robbie Keane and Jermaine Defoe has served to uplift the spirits of Spurs' fans, but is not in and of itself the root cause of the momentum turnround. But there remains much work to be done in the close season if Spurs are to fulfill their undoubted potential next season. Putting to one side the possibility of transfer market activity, and assuming the same squad in place in late August, I would like to see the following occur:

• A more mobile midfield, with players making better movement off-the-ball.
• A strategy than allows for a team which includes Keane and Defoe (never before achieved successfully) as well as Modric and Lennon, but the Modric NOT played on the left.
• Successful medical and physical therapy to permit Ledley King to play almost every game during a long, hard season.
• Two proper central midfielders, capable of playing box-to-box, rather then the more modern view of a holding midfielder in front of the defence and a more attacking central midfielder. Surely any two from the trio of Zokora, Jenas and Palacios is capable of this? And with Tom Huddlestone as well (may his mobility and confidence improve) why not?
• David Bentley playing to his full potential. To-date he is nowhere near replicating the form which brought him to the public eye at Blackburn, but he has not become a bad player overnight. He needs to work on his pace for sure, but somehow he seems to be lacking on confidence.
• Better performances and goal-scoring from Roman Pavlyuchenko. While has played a Russian season and then an English season with no break, his commitment has been unquestionable despite his obvious tiredness. With a Summer break I would like to see him scoring goals more regularly in the Premiership. He has the ability.
• Better defending as a unit: this does not include only the back four, but also the rest of the team. As Bill Nicholson was fond of saying, a team defends from the front.

Despite a modern failure to win enough trophies and qualify for the Champions League, Spurs remain one of the biggest clubs in the Premiership. This is on the basis of the quality of the supporters at both home and away matches. Spurs are one of only two teams who have managed to maintain the same crowd levels when relegated, unlike Manchester City of Newcastle, two so-called big clubs from alleged football hot-spots. And if Spurs were relegated again there is no doubt in my mind that the supporters would not desert in their droves, but continue to support in their tens of thousands. Indeed, the vocal quality of support ensures that Spurs always have their "twelfth man".

Providing Spurs can maintain employment of their quality players I am confident that 2009-2010 will prove to be a breakthrough season for Spurs. It mainly depends on having the momentum of a good start in the first ten games, and then continuing with some high degree of consistency. Just the thought of next season is already exciting me; I best go and prepare to renew my season ticket!

Quantitative Easing

So the Bank of England has decided to opt for expanding the money supply in an attempt to give the economy the quick-start necessary to prevent a deeper and longer recession. After successful attempts at reflating the economy with interest rate cuts, the previously unthinkable has become not only thinkable but doable. So what exactly is quantitative easing, and will it make any difference?

Before the current recession, the global information economy as we now know it did not quite exist. The previous recession of note was in 1991, when the Internet existed but not within the realm of the general public. One of the consequences of the explosion of global information has been something of a "dumbing down" in the provision of news and other items. This may also be partly an "Americanisation" of news; the CNN factor if you will. Consequently, journalists no longer write articles without concern for headlines, it is the headlines which come first. No phrase can be written without first exploring if there is a "sexier" way of saying it. What is now referred to as quantitative easing has always been referred to in Economics textbooks as expansionary monetary policy: expanding the money supply directly. Most Intermediate Macroeconomics textbooks will examine the impact of such policies using tools such as the IS-LM diagram—first posited in 1937 by the late Nobel Laureate John Hicks—or the Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Model.

Using the IS-LM model, the evidence suggests that in a recession the LM curve is horizontal or near-horizontal. And there is no doubt that we are currently in a recession, which has been both swift and steep. When the LM curve is horizontal monetary policy has no effect whatsoever; it is entirely ineffective. The late John Maynard Keynes likened the use of monetary policy in a recession (or depression) as "pushing on a piece of string"; i.e it would be next to useless. And there have been plenty of occasions when this has been tried in the past and failed.

Given that the policy-makers at the Bank of England are highly intelligent people, with a more profound knowledge of Economic theory and history than myself, one has to question the motive for them engaging in a policy which they know to be ineffective. I can only think of one: they feel the need to be seen to be acting in the face of a recession which does not yet appear to most to be dissipating. However, while I would expect such motivations from elected politicians, I would not have expected the same from appointed technocrats, who must be completely aware of the long-run damage that excessive monetary expansion—excuse me, quantitative easing—can do to inflation rates.

If quantitative easing is not the solution to reducing the impact of a recession, then what is? In a previous posting I argued for expansionary fiscal policy in the form of tax cuts. I still maintain that this would be the best way forward, although this may no longer be an available option given the huge bailouts of so many companies already underway. However, the only true remedy for a recession is to try and turn round public and business confidence, which takes time. With the slight improvement in the weather as winter gives way to spring, we may begin to see the first signs of a change from total pessimism to a more realistic outlook. Barring any additional catastrophes or wars, then I fully expect the recession to begin to end during the late months of Summer 2009. Let's hope that fate does not prove me wrong!