Thursday, January 07, 2010

Happy New Year

And so we say goodbye to 2009 and welcome in 2010. The arbitrary move through time from December 31st to January 1st is for many people a chance to begin again, a renewal, a resurgence of previously-moribund optimism. For many it is a time to try to put that optimism into words via a new year's resolution: a statement of one's (good) intentions for the year to come. I do not make new year's resolutions; I do not make resolutions at any time of year, knowing only too well that to do so would invite disappointment when I fail to live up to expectation. So what can we expect from 2010?

Perhaps the most important event to occur in 2010 will be the World Cup, football's premier international competition. Hosted in South Africa, this will be a chance for many of us to see the world's elite footballers challenged by their peers. And yet the seedings, and the playoffs to enter this elite contest are skewed to permit geographic diversity to triumph over the elite teams globally. Thus, we shall see some teams (and even officials) whose weakness will be exasperating, and we shall ask how ourselves how such teams were able to make these finals when other, more worthy teams (Croatia, with the magnificent Luka Modric comes immediately to mind) will not be seen on this magnificent stage?

The coming year will hopefully see the end of the recession which was brought about by the credit crunch and liquidity crisis which began in the USA in 2007. If policy-makers in the world's wealthiest economies can hold their nerve and avoid protectionism measures, then we shall a return to global growth, albeit at a slower pace than previously. And it may be another year before such growth translates into increased employment or, more importantly, decreased unemployment.

In the United Kingdom, sometime before June we shall see a General Election. The less-than-loves Gordon Brown will surely be replaced as Prime Minister regardless of which party gets a majority of seats in Parliament. But after the MPs' expenses scandal of 2009, and the lost direction of New Labour following the departure of Tony Blair, surely a change is as good as a rest?

With cold, arctic winds continuing to spread snow, ice and travel chaos throughout the UK, the debate on global warming will continue. The protagonists will continue as doomsayers, although they have changed tack and talk now of "climate change" rather than "global warming". The antagonists will complain of lack of transparency in the research of their opponents, and tell us the Earth is self-repairing, and global warming is natural in any event. Either way, it is to be hoped that local councils learn how to deal with extremes of weather in a more satisfactory manner than at present. Previous generations had equally extreme conditions, yet dealt with it much better. It is a patent absurdity that with so much greater technological and other expertise, the country grinds to a halt when there are a few inches of snow. This simply does not happen elsewhere, and did not happen in the past.

I am hoping that my football team, Tottenham Hotspur, will continue to improve under the management of Harry Redknapp, who has done a magnificent job thus far. When considering the average age of successful managers in top-flight football in England (and elsewhere) there is a strong case to be made for reviewing the retirement laws in all occupations. In the past, say the era of heavy industry, and even its successor, light industry, there was a case to be made for people retiring as physical strength declined with age. In an era of service industry dominance there is no such case. Indeed, the opposite is clearly true, as experience counts for so much more where "intellectual property" (broadly defined) is the key driver of economic growth.

It is my fervent wish that 2010 sees the world continue to move away from conflict, and especially war, but this seems to be as unlikely as ever. We need to remind ourselves that what divides us is much less important that those things we share in common. While the adage that good fences make for good neighbours is universally true, it is crucial that good neighbours talk to each other over their garden fences. With human beings the whole is always greater than the sum of the parts!

Wishing all readers the most wonderful and fulfilling 2010.