In recent years around this time I have posted a blog reviewing events of the past 12 months and looking forward to the next 12. This year I shall refrain; there are plenty of other people who will be writing such themes. I shall focus instead on what happened this time one hundred years ago.
A century ago saw the start of one of the largest and most violent episodes in human history. Known at the time as "the war to end all wars", the First World War was perhaps more tragic than we will ever truly realise. Sylvia Nasar in her immensely insightful Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius notes that
"World War I destroyed globalization, disrupted economic growth, severed physical, financial and trade links, bankrupted governments and businesses, and led weak or populist regimes to rely on desperate measures that were supposed to head off revolutions but just as often hastened them. When the war was over, the victors as well as the vanquished were crippled by colossal debts and subjected to vicious attacks of inflation and deflation. Poverty, hunger, and disease, those Malthusian scourges, once again seemed to have the upper hand."
Prior to World War I the world's major economies had been on an upward path, with economic growth and development at an unprecedented rate. Trade and financial links had been forged ever deeper and farther. Social and economic mobility were no longer regarded as being impossible, with increasing recognition that individuals could also take charge of their own destiny, rather than a person's station in life being an immutable 'gift' from God. World War I, based on political reasons, destroyed completely the economic gains of the second half of the Industrial Revolution to the extent that the world did not return to its upward path until after World War II some 30 years later. As well as the immense and tragic loss of life which any war brings, the loss of talent, the hysteresis which resulted made for a lost generation subject to poverty and disease which had been thought to have been eradicated.
When memorials are undertaken in 2014 to commemorate the dead and wounded of the 1914–1918 War we should also take time to think about the living who endured. Their suffering during the inter-War years, years of heightened nationalism, disease, poverty and malnutrition brought on during the Great Depression, often proved as fatal as a bullet on the battlefield. Their struggles in the face of insurmountable odds was the price of excessive nationalism and myopic politicians. We, who live in an age of plenty, an age of social media, an age of conspicuous consumption, an age in which poverty and starvation has been replaced by obesity in many high-income economies, should not only honour the memories of those who died, but exalt them for the sacrifices they made. We should give thanks that, despite conflicts which continue to rage in the world today, many of us are now safe from the threat of war and able to enjoy the best of what life has to offer, not endure it. However tough life gets for us in the 21st century, it has ceased to be "nasty, brutish and short" for more of us than ever before.
I wish you all a wonderful and fulfilling 2014. May you enjoy the fruits of your labours more than ever.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Monday, December 23, 2013
Holiday season musings
As I write the wind outside is blowing up a storm. Here in north London it is wet and blustery, with wind speeds forecast to increase as the day progresses. The upside, if there is one, is that it is unseasonably warm for Winter. That English weather has become less predictable is surely uncontestable. However, in my childhood English weather was said to be highly changeable. Around the time I was seven or so, I have a strong recollection of being on holiday in Margate. I was standing on one side of the street in the bright, dry sunshine while there was rain on the other side of the street. I have never experienced such an amazing dichotomy of weather since!
The weather in that street in Margate is a suitable metaphor for the planet we inhabit. While a great deal of the Earth is a strong parallel for the sunny side of the street, too much of the planet we call home is suffering from inclement weather. While western Europe has enjoyed the sunshine and not suffered war on its own soil since 1945, parts of Africa and the Middle East continue to seek shelter from the vicissitudes of war and turmoil. History suggests that famine has now largely been abolished in much of the northern hemisphere; war has not yet been abolished but has largely disappeared from vast areas of planet Earth. The seasonal message of PEACE ON EARTH still seems a long way off, but I am optimistic that humanity is at least moving in the right direction.
One of the causes for my optimism stems from my current reading: Grand Pursuit, by Sylvia Nasar. Subtitled "The Story of the People Who Made Modern Economics: A Story of Economic Genius", this book starts by reminding the reader of the dire state of human material existence prior to the end of World War II. It makes for salutary reading, and is a strong indication of the almost infinite achievements which humanity is capable of when we put our minds and our will to work. The economic problems we face today are more how we deal with a world of plenty (as evidenced by ever-increasing obesity levels) rather than how we deal with a lack of resources, and making them go round. To some degree we have begun to conquer the economic problem: how to make scarce (finite) resources available for almost-infinite human desires. The key to this has been human ingenuity. While physical resources are finite, the human imagination is infinite in scope, allowing us to find increasingly better and more productive ways in which to utilise those resources. Long may this continue, until such a time as we invent the replicator, a feature of Star Trek, enabling us to create something almost out of nothing. 3D printers seem to be the beginning of such a device.
It is also the season when it is customary to be optimistic. May I wish each and every one of you all of the compliments of the season. May you enjoy the holiday season surrounded by friends and family. And, more importantly perhaps, may 2014 be the year in which you go a long way to fulfilling your potential, and the world finds itself a long way nearer to peace on earth and goodwill among all of us.
The weather in that street in Margate is a suitable metaphor for the planet we inhabit. While a great deal of the Earth is a strong parallel for the sunny side of the street, too much of the planet we call home is suffering from inclement weather. While western Europe has enjoyed the sunshine and not suffered war on its own soil since 1945, parts of Africa and the Middle East continue to seek shelter from the vicissitudes of war and turmoil. History suggests that famine has now largely been abolished in much of the northern hemisphere; war has not yet been abolished but has largely disappeared from vast areas of planet Earth. The seasonal message of PEACE ON EARTH still seems a long way off, but I am optimistic that humanity is at least moving in the right direction.
One of the causes for my optimism stems from my current reading: Grand Pursuit, by Sylvia Nasar. Subtitled "The Story of the People Who Made Modern Economics: A Story of Economic Genius", this book starts by reminding the reader of the dire state of human material existence prior to the end of World War II. It makes for salutary reading, and is a strong indication of the almost infinite achievements which humanity is capable of when we put our minds and our will to work. The economic problems we face today are more how we deal with a world of plenty (as evidenced by ever-increasing obesity levels) rather than how we deal with a lack of resources, and making them go round. To some degree we have begun to conquer the economic problem: how to make scarce (finite) resources available for almost-infinite human desires. The key to this has been human ingenuity. While physical resources are finite, the human imagination is infinite in scope, allowing us to find increasingly better and more productive ways in which to utilise those resources. Long may this continue, until such a time as we invent the replicator, a feature of Star Trek, enabling us to create something almost out of nothing. 3D printers seem to be the beginning of such a device.
It is also the season when it is customary to be optimistic. May I wish each and every one of you all of the compliments of the season. May you enjoy the holiday season surrounded by friends and family. And, more importantly perhaps, may 2014 be the year in which you go a long way to fulfilling your potential, and the world finds itself a long way nearer to peace on earth and goodwill among all of us.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)